Florida TaxWatch released its latest economic forecast today, mapping out where the state’s finances, job market, and population are heading between now and 2035. The first-quarter report, created alongside the Regional Economic Consulting Group, shows that while Florida’s economy is massive, it faces a temporary slowdown before rebounding later in the decade.
Jeff Kottkamp, the president and CEO of Florida TaxWatch, highlighted the sheer size of the state’s financial footprint.
“Fueled by a strong global presence in tourism, trade, and real estate development, Florida’s economy has grown to $1.87 trillion in 2025,” Kottkamp said. “In fact, if Florida was a country, its economic output would be the 13th largest in the world, bigger than that of South Korea and Australia.”
Despite that strength, researchers expect the current year to interrupt the recent surge. Kottkamp noted that the group predicted 2026 would bring a break from the rapid growth seen in almost all macroeconomic areas, even though the state finished 2025 ranked first in the nation for business startups. He explained that the state’s economy will return to pre-pandemic growth rates over the next five years. While hampered by global events, he added, the outlook still carries signs of optimism.
“While Florida entered 2025 with strong growth trends, ranking number one in terms of economic strength, Florida TaxWatch continues to question whether Florida’s impressive rate of economic growth is sustainable over the next several years,” Kottkamp said.
A major factor complicating the forecast is international tension, specifically uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Energy costs tied to these global events are already affecting expectations, especially in the tourism sector.
Tourism projections took the biggest hit in the new report. While the total number of visitors will continue to climb, the expected growth rate dropped by an average of 45.3 percent for the ten-year period. Tourism growth is projected to fall to a decade-low of 0.8 percent in 2027 before stabilizing near 2 percent in 2028. The report points to rising energy and transportation costs, which get passed down to consumers, as the primary reason for the slowdown.
Other areas of the economy show a mix of hurdles and steady gains. Real GDP growth is expected to hit 2.5 percent this year and dip to 1.9 percent in 2027. However, the forecast shows it rebounding to 2.9 percent in 2028 and staying slightly above 3 percent through the rest of the 2030s.
The job market will also see some shifts. The total number of employed Floridians is projected to jump from 10.1 million in 2026 to 11.3 million by 2035. At the same time, the unemployment rate will likely climb over the next couple of years, peaking at 4.8 percent in 2028. After that, it is expected to drop and level out at around 4.2 percent. The ten-year average unemployment forecast went up slightly from previous reports, moving from 4.17 percent to 4.33 percent due to an expected business slowdown caused by rising costs. Personal income is expected to rise from about $88,000 to $126,300 over the decade, though those figures do not account for inflation.
One area completely untouched by global events is population growth. Florida is on track to add about 2.3 million new residents between 2026 and 2035. Even though the overall population will keep growing, the daily number of new arrivals will slowly decrease. In 2026, the state expects a net gain of 895 people per day. By 2035, that daily average is projected to drop to 689 people.
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