Weather experts are sending a mixed message to coastal residents this year: the ocean might stay quieter than usual, but the storms that do form could pack a more dangerous punch for the United States.
On Wednesday, AccuWeather released its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, predicting a total of 11 to 16 named storms. While those numbers sit slightly below the 10-year average, meteorologists warn that the statistics don’t tell the whole story.
Between 4 and 7 of those storms are expected to reach hurricane strength, with 2 to 4 potentially becoming major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
The primary concern for the U.S. is the forecast of 3 to 5 direct impacts. AccuWeather defines a direct impact as a landfall, a storm passing within 60 miles of the coast, or significant land-based effects like flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, and storm surges exceeding two feet.
“It’s very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of the forecast,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert. “Even if it’s expected to be a slightly below-average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States.”
The El Niño Factor
A developing El Niño is the main reason for the lower predicted storm count. This climate pattern typically increases wind shear across the Atlantic, which acts like a “shredder” for developing storms.
There is currently a 15% chance of a “Super El Niño” developing by the second half of the season, which peaks around September 10. If that happens, activity could drop even further.
Historically, El Niño years average about 10 named storms, a sharp contrast to the 15 seen during La Niña years.
Warm Waters and “Homegrown” Threats
Despite the expected wind shear, two factors are keeping forecasters on edge: extreme ocean heat and “homegrown” development.
Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Atlantic are forecast to reach record-breaking levels. This heat doesn’t just sit on the surface; it extends hundreds of feet deep.
“That heat… provides additional fuel for storms,” DaSilva said. “As a result, we are very concerned about the risk of rapid intensification this hurricane season.”
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Furthermore, experts are watching for storms that form close to the U.S. coastline rather than trekking across the ocean from Africa. These “homegrown” systems leave coastal communities with significantly less time to react.
“Storms that form within a few hundred miles of the coast can leave people, businesses, and officials with less time to prepare and evacuate,” DaSilva explained.
Regional Risks
The forecast highlights specific areas with varying risk levels:
- High Risk: The central and eastern Gulf Coast, the Carolinas, and the Virginia coastline face a higher-than-average risk of significant impacts.
- Lower Risk: Central and southern Texas are currently seeing a lower-than-average risk compared to historical data.
- International Concerns: Cuba and Jamaica remain highly vulnerable. Jamaica is still recovering from the Category 5 impact of Hurricane Melissa last year, while Cuba faces an ongoing energy crisis that could complicate disaster response.
The 2026 season officially begins June 1, though experts say the exceptionally warm water could trigger development even earlier. After a 2025 season that saw three Category 5 storms, and memories of the 1992 season—which had only seven storms but included the devastating Hurricane Andrew—officials are urging citizens to check insurance policies and restock emergency kits now.
“There is no reason to let your guard down this year,” DaSilva warned. “It only takes one storm to cause major damage, disruption, and heartache.”
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