A massive plume of tropical moisture is locking onto the U.S. Gulf Coast this week, bringing a severe threat of life-threatening flash floods to millions of people from Texas to Alabama. Meteorologists are tracking a disorganized but potent weather system, officially designated by the National Hurricane Center as Invest AL90, which is currently sitting over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and south Texas.
The system has a medium chance of organizing into a tropical depression or a short-lived tropical storm over the next 48 hours. If it develops enough sustained winds to get a name, it will become Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Right now, a broad trough of low pressure is stretching across coastal northeast Mexico, the Texas border, and deep into southern Texas. It is already triggering a massive zone of heavy showers and thunderstorms stretching into southwest Louisiana.
The National Hurricane Center noted on Tuesday morning that environmental conditions are marginally favorable for this system to spin up into a tropical cyclone as it drifts north-northeastward over the warm waters of the northwest Gulf. Forecasters warned that Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required later today, and residents should also prepare for gusty winds and coastal flooding.
The complex history of this system stretches across two oceans. “Moisture from former Tropical Storm Cristina, which moved in from the Pacific, across Central America, into southern Mexico, and then into the Bay of Campeche, found its way into Texas this past weekend,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “The moisture was accompanied by a tropical wave of low pressure that originated in Africa.”
Even if the system fails to become a fully organized tropical storm, the sheer volume of water it is carrying poses an immediate danger. “As a non-tropical jet stream storm becomes involved, the combination, along with warm waters, could spin a low-pressure area as the area of interest moves across the northwest portion of the Gulf, right along the Texas coast,” DaSilva said. “The time frame for possible development is from Tuesday to Wednesday before the system moves inland.”
The situation is expected to escalate as the tropical moisture collides with regular continental weather patterns. “By the middle of the week, the plume of moisture with or without an organized area of low pressure is forecast to merge with a cold front moving in from the north,” DaSilva said. “This setup will lead to widespread heavy rain across the Gulf Coast states.”
A massive swath of southeastern Texas, southern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama is on track to receive 4 to 8 inches of rain through Tuesday night alone. Localized zones could see up to 12 inches. This comes on top of the 2 to 6 inches of rain that already drenched the Texas Hill Country from Sunday to Monday morning, where several flash floods have already been reported.
The heavy rainfall will not stay in one place, creating a multi-day hazard for the wider region. “As the rainstorm consolidates along the Texas coast, downpours should ease over the Hill Country by the middle of the week, but problems will increase farther to the east in Texas and along the central Gulf Coast,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
Major metro areas are directly in the crosshairs. “This area can further amplify the flood risk starting Tuesday night along the Texas coast, extending into the Houston area on Wednesday, which would coincide with the World Cup match that afternoon,” AccuWeather Vice President of Forecast Operations Dan DePodwin said. “Although the match is inside, flooding could cause road closures and cause dangerous travel conditions.”
As the week progresses, the core of the storm will march steadily eastward. “A significant flood risk exists each day this week, shifting slowly eastward from Texas on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia during the second half of the week,” DePodwin said. From Wednesday to Friday, an additional 4 to 8 inches of rain is forecast across the deep south, with a narrower corridor primed to receive 8 to 12 inches. In the absolute worst-hit areas, total rainfall could peak at 20 inches.
Beyond the immediate threat of flooded roads and urban areas, local rivers will face major surges as days of runoff accumulate. Minor to moderate flooding is predicted for several Texas waterways, including the Trinity, Colorado, Brazos, San Antonio, Guadalupe, Neches, and Nueces rivers. Further east, the Sabine, Pearl, Tombigbee, and Alabama rivers are also bracing for significant rises, with some sections potentially hitting major flood stage.
While separate minor to moderate flooding is currently occurring far inland along the Illinois, Missouri, and Mississippi rivers due to recent midwestern rains, hydrologists note that those waters will take two to three weeks to flow down to the Gulf Coast. As a result, the inland river crests will not combine with the immediate runoff from this week’s tropical system.
Further out in the Atlantic basin, meteorologists are tracking several other tropical waves moving westward across the central Atlantic and Caribbean, alongside strong trade winds causing rough seas off the coast of Colombia. However, Invest AL90 remains the primary and most immediate threat to land. Weather officials urge motorists to avoid flooded roadways and monitor updates from local National Weather Service offices as the system evolves.
READ: Flesh-Eating Screwworm Threat: Candidate Justin Story Vows To Fight For Central Florida Ranchers
Please make a small donation to the Tampa Free Press to help sustain independent journalism. Your contribution enables us to continue delivering high-quality, local, and national news coverage.
Sign up: Subscribe to our free newsletter for a curated selection of top stories delivered straight to your inbox.
