AccuWeather meteorologists are zeroing in on a region off the Southeastern United States as a potential hotspot for tropical development through the first half of August.
The primary zone includes the waters surrounding Florida, the Carolinas, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Forecasters say this region may have the strongest potential across the Atlantic basin to produce a tropical depression or tropical rainstorm over the coming weeks, following a pattern similar to Tropical Storm Bertha in mid-July.
Lower atmospheric pressure in this specific area is expected to foster localized thunderstorm activity. Atmospheric conditions may also align to help these storms organize.
“There will be a couple of fronts that drop into this region and slowly decay,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “Waters are sufficiently warm in this region to foster tropical activity, and it appears wind shear will be relatively low for a time compared to most prior weeks so far this summer.”
Tropical development generally requires sea surface temperatures of at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit. Wind shear—changes in wind speed or direction at different altitudes—can tear apart organizing storms, but lower shear creates a more favorable environment for system growth.
Meteorologists noted that development could occur if a cluster of thunderstorms forms an area of low pressure and detaches from a decaying front. That separation allows the system to build a warm core and develop rotation, transforming from a standard frontal storm into a tropical system.
Because the target area lies adjacent to several landmasses, forecasters warn that any sudden development could leave limited time for preparations.
“Because this zone under scrutiny is so close to land areas, given the conditions, it has to be monitored as there may be minimal notice if a tropical storm were to form,” DaSilva said.
A fast-forming coastal storm could rapidly produce heavy rainfall, dangerous beach conditions, coastal flooding, and strong wind gusts.
Despite the near-term monitoring off the U.S. coast, AccuWeather continues to forecast a below-average to average Atlantic hurricane season overall. The lower activity level is largely driven by a strong El Niño pattern, which typically generates prolonged wind shear across the Atlantic basin.
By contrast, the Eastern Pacific is experiencing an above-average to much-above-average season, fueled in part by warmer-than-normal Pacific waters associated with El Niño. The Pacific has already produced seven named storms, including Hurricanes Fausto and Genevieve.
So far this season, the Atlantic has seen only two named storms—Arthur and Bertha—neither of which reached hurricane strength, though both made direct contact with the U.S.
Atlantic tropical activity typically remains subdued through June, July, and early August before climatologically accelerating from late August through mid-September.
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