The traditional “fire season” is becoming a thing of the past as a tightening grip of drought across nearly half the United States creates a dangerous setup for wildfires this spring.
According to the latest data from AccuWeather, over 45% of the contiguous U.S. is currently grappling with expanding dry conditions, leaving massive swaths of the country vulnerable to fast-moving blazes well before the summer heat arrives.
Meteorologists are raising the red flag particularly for the interior West and the High Plains. In states like New Mexico, Colorado, and Montana, snowpack levels have fallen significantly below historical averages.
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This lack of “frozen storage” means that as temperatures climb, the grass and brush will dry out much faster than usual, providing ready-made fuel for any spark.
“If vegetation dries out and winds are strong, fires can ignite and spread rapidly regardless of the month on the calendar,” noted AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham. He pointed to the devastating January 2025 fires in Los Angeles County—which caused upwards of $250 billion in economic losses—as a stark reminder that winter and spring no longer offer guaranteed protection.
The risk isn’t confined to the West. Last year, more than 40% of the nation’s wildfires actually occurred east of the Mississippi River. This spring, the mid-Atlantic and Florida are under the microscope.
In the Southeast, a combination of ongoing drought and recent winter freezes has killed off sensitive vegetation, turning it into dry tinder. In the Appalachian region, experts are also keeping an eye on the massive amount of downed timber left behind by 2024’s Tropical Storm Helene, which could fuel intense fires if the spring remains dry.
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Shifting climate trends are making these dry spells more frequent. A recent study highlighted a 2.7% decline in average annual rainfall across the lower 48 states since 1995. This steady drying trend is effectively lengthening the window of time each year that the landscape is ready to burn.
As March approaches, the highest risk areas include the Four Corners region and the adjacent Front Range. While late-season storms might provide brief windows of moisture, the long-range outlook suggests that April and May will see fuels drying out ahead of schedule.
Experts urge residents in high-risk zones to clear debris from around their homes and prepare emergency “go bags” now, rather than waiting for the smoke to appear on the horizon.
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