The Biden-Harris administration has failed to deliver on many of its promises, including shutting down the virus, boosting the economy, and uniting the country.
But President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and their fellow Democrats in and outside of Congress are helping deliver more voters to the Republican Party.
As Gallup explained, “On average, Americans’ political party preferences in 2021 looked similar to prior years, with slightly more U.S. adults identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic (46%) than identified as Republicans or leaned Republican (43%).”
“However, the general stability for the full-year average obscures a dramatic shift over the course of 2021, from a nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter to a rare five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter.”
At the beginning of last year, Gallup noted, its survey found that 49 percent of respondents claimed to be Democrats or leaned that way, compared to just 40 percent who were in the GOP camp.
Yet by the end of 2021, the Republicans had the advantage, by 47 percent to 42 percent.
The results were based on interviews with 12,000 people, Gallup said.
The survey “gives a measure of the relative strength of the two parties politically,” Gallup said.
The Democrat’s number at the beginning of 2021 likely showed the exasperation many felt from the Trump years. Former President Donald Trump left office with an approval rating of 34 percent, the lowest of his tenure in office.
Accordingly, a year ago Democrats boasted their highest outcome in Gallup’s poll since the last quarter of 2012, when then-President Barack Obama was re-elected.
Yet the year-end data showed how profound the shift to the right was.
Republicans have held a lead as big as five points in just four quarters in the last 30 years, or in other words, the last 120 quarters.
“The Republicans last held a five-point advantage in party identification and leaning in early 1995, after winning control of the House of Representatives for the first time since the 1950s,” Gallup reported.
The only other time the GOP had a bigger lead than that was in the first quarter of 1991, after the U.S. won the Persian Gulf War under then-President George H.W. Bush.
Gallup attributed the Democrats’ collapse to Biden’s inability to control the pandemic, the disastrous and tragic pullout from Afghanistan, and the highest rates of inflation in 40 years.
Gallup’s data indicates the Democrats’ lead evaporated largely because left-leaning independents abandoned the party. Their share fell from 19 percent at the start of 2021 to 14 percent by year’s end.
The ratio of Republican-leaning independents grew last year, from 15 percent to 19 percent.
Gallup explained why that matters:
“The broader trend toward an increasing share of political independents has been clear over the past decade, with more Americans viewing themselves as independents than did so in the late 1980s through 2000s,” the pollster noted.
“At least four in 10 Americans have considered themselves independents in all years since 2011, except for the 2016 and 2020 presidential election years. Before 2011, independent identification had never reached 40%.”
Gallup also indicated its monthly poll for December showed Democrats may have rebounded a bit, as the GOP lead was 46 to 44.
Yet, Gallup noted, that “still represents a departure from the historical norm of the Democratic Party’s having at least a slight advantage in party affiliation.”
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