A profound and deeply bipartisan anxiety is sweeping across the United States, as a majority of citizens now anticipate a dramatic escalation in political violence in the coming years.
This concern is so acute that over half of Americans told pollsters they expect a political candidate to be assassinated within the next five years.
Escalating Fears Across the Aisle
The new poll from Politico and Public First reveals that fears about rising violence are not confined to one party. Expectation of an assassination is nearly identical across partisan lines: 53 percent of 2024 Kamala Harris voters and 51 percent of Donald Trump voters share this grim outlook.
Furthermore, a majority on both sides—61 percent of recent Harris voters and 50 percent of recent Trump voters—foresee a general spike in violence overall.
This widespread apprehension, taken after the September assassination of conservative political activist Charlie Kirk, suggests a national mood that is increasingly concerned about but also, to some extent, resigned to the reality of political violence.
Disturbing Acceptance and Historical Precedent
Perhaps most unsettling is the finding that a significant number of Americans believe political violence is justifiable. 24 percent of all respondents think it is sometimes acceptable, a figure that jumps to over one-third for those under age 45.
This acceptance mirrors a similar finding in an October NPR / PBS News / Marist poll, where around 30 percent of both Democrats and Republicans felt political violence might be necessary to “get the country back on track.”
Documented increases in real-world attacks support these fears. The targets have included politicians and officials tied to both parties, ranging from multiple shooting attempts against President Trump during his campaign, the assassination of Charlie Kirk, and a firebombing attack on Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania.
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