NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6

As Florida Prepares For Hurricane Season NOAA Predicts Up To 21 Named Storms For 2022

NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year, making it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season.

“NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season,” NOAA forecasted on Tuesday.

“Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane resilient and climate-ready,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo. “Throughout the hurricane season, NOAA experts will work around-the-clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed.” 

For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

NOAA says the increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. 

“As we reflect on another potentially busy hurricane season, past storms — such as Superstorm Sandy, which devastated the New York metro area ten years ago — remind us that the impact of one storm can be felt for years,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “Since Sandy, NOAA’s forecasting accuracy has continued to improve, allowing us to better predict the impacts of major hurricanes to lives and livelihoods.”

Previously, Colorado State University researchers predicted 19 named storms, with nine growing into hurricanes. Four of the hurricanes could have winds topping 111 mph, under the university’s forecast. AccuWeather has predicted 16 to 20 named storms this year, with six to eight becoming hurricanes.

Four to six of the storms could directly impact the U.S., according to AccuWeather. Between 1991 and 2020, the Atlantic averaged 14.4 storms a season, with an average of 7.2 reaching hurricane status and an average of 3.2 categorized as major storms.

The past two hurricane seasons have exhausted lists of storm names, with a record 30 named storms in 2020 and 21 named systems in 2021.

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