The National Hurricane Center has designated two areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic basin, including a newly active region off the coast of West Africa and a system developing close to the southeastern United States.
Meteorologists identified an area of thunderstorms southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, located several hundred miles off the West African coast. The system has become better organized, marking the first signs of tropical activity within the Atlantic’s Main Development Region this hurricane season.
The National Hurricane Center currently gives this system a low chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next two days. Forecasters note that while the system is currently moving through a pocket of favorable atmospheric conditions, it is expected to eventually encounter a more hostile environment characterized by strong upper-level winds and thick plumes of Saharan dust that have otherwise kept the open Atlantic quiet.
Simultaneously, weather officials are monitoring a second area stretching from the Gulf of Mexico waters off Florida’s Big Bend, across the Florida peninsula, and along the coastlines of Georgia and South Carolina. An area of low pressure is forecast to form over this region through the upcoming weekend.
The National Hurricane Center has assigned this coastal system a 20% probability of tropical development over the next seven days.
Weather analysts emphasize that regardless of whether the coastal system organizes into a named tropical entity, residents in northern Florida and parts of the broader Southeast will likely experience heavy tropical downpours. A system achieves tropical classification when well-organized thunderstorms begin to rotate around a distinct low-pressure center over warm ocean waters.
Historically, tropical systems in July tend to be “homegrown threats” that originate near the American coastline rather than across the deep ocean. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast coast currently remain above historical averages, providing the necessary warmth to support potential development despite the generally slow start to the overall Atlantic hurricane season.
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