AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting a quieter end to the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season as a strengthening El Niño pattern continues to take hold in the Pacific Ocean.
Updated projections call for 8 to 14 named storms, 4 to 7 hurricanes, and 2 to 4 major hurricanes reaching Category 3 or higher. Forecasters expect between three and five direct impacts on the United States before the season concludes on Nov. 30.
Meteorologists now place the probability of El Niño evolving into a “super El Niño” by the end of the season at more than 90 percent. Although the phenomenon forms in the Pacific, it generates strong high-altitude winds across the Atlantic known as wind shear. These winds disrupt tropical development and can weaken existing storms.
“The stronger El Niño becomes, the greater the likelihood of a less active end to the season,” said Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert at AccuWeather.
Despite the potential for a quieter late season, forecasters emphasize that a less active year can still produce dangerous landfalls. Regions currently designated with a higher-than-average risk include the northern and eastern Gulf Coast, the Carolinas, and the northeastern Caribbean.
A central concern for meteorologists is exceptionally warm ocean water near the U.S. coastline. These elevated water temperatures allow weak systems to intensify quickly right before reaching land, giving coastal residents very little time to prepare.
That quick-development pattern was already demonstrated earlier this summer. Tropical Storm Arthur formed in the western Gulf on June 17 just hours before striking northeastern Texas. The storm dropped record rainfall across the region, including 31.56 inches in Cottonport, Louisiana, and stranded entire communities under floodwaters in Mississippi. Days later, Tropical Storm Bertha formed in the eastern Gulf on June 20, making landfalls in Louisiana and near the Texas border by June 23.
“It will be especially important to closely monitor each tropical wave this season,” DaSilva explained. “Some tropical waves may remain disorganized while crossing the Atlantic, only to develop and intensify once they reach the exceptionally warm waters near the United States such as in the western Caribbean or Gulf.”
Atmospheric conditions across the open ocean are also limiting storm creation. Meteorologists are tracking an “Atlantic Niña,” characterized by below-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic, alongside unusually stable air across the Main Development Region stretching from Africa to the Caribbean.
“Over the last two years, the environment across the Main Development Region has been less favorable for thunderstorm development than the historical average,” DaSilva said. “This has led to tropical waves struggling to develop after they move off the African coast.”
The heart of the Atlantic season remains ahead. On average, the first hurricane forms around Aug. 11, followed by the first major hurricane around Sept. 1. Tropical activity typically hits its climatological peak on Sept. 10 before gradually declining through the autumn months.
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