U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds holds a commanding lead in Florida’s Republican gubernatorial primary, according to a survey released Thursday by the James Madison Institute. The poll places the Naples congressman at 49% support among likely Republican primary voters—just one percentage point shy of an outright majority—heading into the Aug. 18 primary.
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins trailed Donalds at 18%, followed by former House Speaker Paul Renner at 8% and businessman James Fishback at 4%. The survey of 1,400 registered Florida voters was conducted July 20–26 by Targoz Market Research and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 2.62 percentage points.
On the Democratic side, former Republican congressman David Jolly led with 47% among likely Democratic primary voters, while his nearest opponent, Dayna Foster, captured 4%. More than 40% of Democratic respondents remained undecided following the departure of Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings earlier this year due to a medical diagnosis.
In head-to-head general election matchups, Donalds led Jolly 45% to 38% among likely voters and 40% to 36% among registered voters. Collins performed similarly against Jolly, leading 44% to 39% among likely voters. Both Republican candidates retained over 75% support within their own party, while Jolly secured at least 80% among Democrats in either scenario.
The James Madison Institute, which commissioned the survey, is a conservative think tank based in Tallahassee.
The poll revealed a notable gap among no-party-affiliation voters, who number roughly 3.8 million in Florida. Among these independent voters, Jolly led Donalds 36% to 19%, with over 40% undecided. Republican voters currently hold a 1.5-million-voter registration advantage statewide.
“The competitiveness will turn largely on the extent to which Donalds can bring Republicans who don’t vote for him in the primary back into the fold,” Sean Freeder, director of the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab, told Newsweek. A separate UNF poll conducted earlier this year showed 7% of Republicans backing Jolly against Donalds, while Donalds drew 2% support from Democrats.
The poll release coincided with both candidates outlining opposing positions on artificial intelligence infrastructure across the state.
Donalds, who serves on the House Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence, introduced the Protecting Ratepayers Act on July 21. The federal legislation would require AI data center developers to source power and water from private suppliers rather than public utility grids or municipal water systems.
“The next wave of technology and innovation shouldn’t come at the expense of hardworking Americans,” Donalds said during the bill’s announcement. “Our outdated energy grid is already in desperate need of modernization and is not prepared to take on the power demands of data centers without impacting the wallets of our citizens.”
Donalds has also received an endorsement from Leading the Future, a pro-AI super PAC backed by tech investors.
Jolly has called for a temporary halt on new facilities, saying in July, “I’m calling for a stop to AI data centers until Florida has a responsible plan to protect our water, our workforce, and our way of life.” Jolly’s campaign has criticized Donalds’ connections to industry donors, prompting Donalds’ communications director Gates McGavick to respond that Jolly was “reacting with cheap talk like the washed up MSNBC analyst he is.”
The issue follows state legislation passed earlier in 2026 under Gov. Ron DeSantis, including SB 484, which aims to shield utility ratepayers from cost increases linked to data center development.
Donalds has also advocated for cryptocurrency policies in Congress, sponsoring the Reserve and Stockpile Act to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and proposing a state-level Bitcoin reserve for Florida. Congressional financial disclosures show his wife, Erika Donalds, purchased between $50,001 and $100,000 in bitcoin in December 2025. Donalds’ campaign did not respond to inquiries regarding whether he would divest from digital asset holdings if elected governor.
Donalds launched his campaign in February 2025 following an endorsement from former President Donald Trump. A prior poll by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates found that informing voters of Trump’s endorsement expanded Donalds’ lead in the primary, though the JMI survey found that 29% of all Florida voters were aware of the endorsement, while 48% were unaware.
Donalds has collected formal endorsements from political figures including House Speaker Mike Johnson, Senators Rick Scott and Ted Cruz, and Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, alongside three-quarters of the Republican caucus in the Florida House. His campaign and affiliated PAC reported raising over $90 million through the end of June 2026. Collins raised $388,489 through April 1, according to campaign disclosures.
Debates on the Republican side were canceled after other candidates failed to meet qualifications set by the Republican Party of Florida, which included specific fundraising, polling, and donor thresholds.
Gov. DeSantis, who is term-limited, has not endorsed a candidate in the primary.
Donalds, 47, was born in Brooklyn, New York, and built a career in banking before his election to Congress in 2020. If elected, he would be the first Black Republican governor in U.S. history. Jolly, a former Republican congressman who left the party in 2018 and registered as a Democrat in 2025, is running alongside former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham.
The Florida primary election is set for Aug. 18, 2026, with the general election following on Nov. 3, 2026.
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