The race for California’s governorship was thrown into a state of flux this week after Democratic Representative Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign on Sunday. The exit follows a series of sexual misconduct allegations, including claims of non-consensual sexual activity involving a staffer.
The sudden vacancy at the top of the Democratic ticket has prompted political analysts to suggest that the state’s “top-two” primary system could lead to an unexpected Republican advantage.
Appearing on “The Ingraham Angle” on Tuesday, veteran Democratic strategist Doug Schoen warned that the party’s current fragmentation might allow two Republicans to advance to the general election, shutting Democrats out entirely.
“There could be two Republicans in November if [Tom] Steyer continues not to take off,” Schoen told host Laura Ingraham, noting that the party is now scrambling to narrow the field to avoid a total collapse in the June primary.
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Schoen highlighted billionaire Tom Steyer as a significant factor in the race’s shifting dynamics. Despite Steyer’s ability to self-fund—having spent roughly $250 million on his 2020 presidential bid—Schoen argued that the lack of a clear Democratic frontrunner creates a vacuum.
“There is an opening. There is no Democrat who’s credible, who’s better than 10, 11%. So I think Steyer is the likely heir apparent, and there is a real fear,” Schoen stated.
Recent data supports the idea of a deeply divided electorate. March 2026 polling conducted before Swalwell’s exit showed him leading a fractured Democratic field with 17% support, followed by Steyer at 11%.
On the Republican side, Steve Hilton led the pack at 13%, with Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco trailing closely at 11%.
With Swalwell out of the running, the Democratic vote remains split among several low-polling candidates. Under California’s primary rules, the two candidates who receive the most votes, regardless of party affiliation, move on to the November ballot.
If Democratic voters remain split among multiple candidates while Republican voters consolidate behind Hilton and Bianco, the state could face a general election with no Democrat on the ticket for governor.
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