The Western Caribbean is bracing for a catastrophic week as Hurricane Melissa, currently fluctuating between a high-end Category 4 and a Category 5, is forecast to make devastating, back-to-back landfalls in Jamaica and Cuba, bringing a significant risk of life-threatening flooding, mudslides, and destructive storm surge.
AccuWeather hurricane experts warn that the slow-moving major hurricane is set to deliver an extended period of extreme weather, with the potential for unparalleled destruction across multiple nations.
Dual Landfalls Bring Catastrophic Threat
Melissa is projected to make its first landfall in Jamaica on Tuesday morning as a destructive Category 4 hurricane. Shortly after, it is forecast to strike Cuba as a Category 3 storm late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.
“Slow-moving major hurricanes often go down in history as some of the deadliest and most destructive storms on record,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter. “Tens of thousands of families are facing hours of extreme wind gusts above 100 mph and days of relentless, torrential rainfall.”
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Jamaica Faces Historic Disaster
The primary concern is the catastrophic impact on Jamaica, which has not experienced a direct strike from a major hurricane in nearly 40 years.
- Extreme Rainfall: Parts of Jamaica are expected to receive 24-36 inches of rain, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 50 inches, leading to catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, particularly over the island’s mountainous terrain.
- Destructive Winds: Central Jamaica, near the point of landfall, could see destructive wind gusts of 160-170 mph, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 180 mph.
- Life-Threatening Storm Surge: A destructive and life-threatening storm surge of 10-14 feet is expected just east of where Melissa makes landfall, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ surge of 15 feet. Porter warned that a surge of 6-10 feet could “damage or destroy critical infrastructure along the bays and shorelines near the capital and largest city of Kingston.”
“This is a dire situation unfolding in slow motion… The island’s beautiful mountains are one of the reasons that it is so dangerous when a hurricane strikes,” Porter added, urging residents to heed all evacuation orders and shelter in the safest place possible.
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Hispaniola and Cuba at Risk
As Melissa slowly crawls through the region, Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) faces an ongoing threat of widespread heavy rainfall, escalating the risk of catastrophic flash flooding and deadly mudslides that could lead to a humanitarian crisis.
Southern Cuba is also preparing for a direct hit, with AccuWeather experts forecasting:
- Major Hurricane Force: Landfall is expected late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning as a major hurricane.
- Heavy Rain and Surge: A widespread 12-18 inches of rain is expected across eastern Cuba, alongside a damaging storm surge of 6-10 feet for portions of the southeastern coastline.
U.S. East Coast on Alert
While the direct wind and rain impacts are most likely to remain offshore, some coastal flooding, rough surf, and beach erosion are possible this week along the U.S. East Coast, especially if Melissa expands in size. AccuWeather hurricane experts are advising people along the East Coast and Atlantic Canada to closely monitor forecast updates.
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