Global consumer confidence extended its steady recovery during the week of June 28, 2026, according to Morning Consult. The global Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) four-week moving average rose 0.4 points to 97.9, marking the tenth consecutive weekly advance since the index hit its lowest point of the year at 93.2 on April 19.
A primary driver of this turnaround is the rapid clearing of the shipping backlog in the Strait of Hormuz. With oil tankers moving through the vital waterway ahead of schedule, Brent crude settled at $74 per barrel by the end of June—its lowest price since February 2026—providing immediate financial relief to consumers at the pump.
However, the economic rebound is leaving a distinct trail of winners and losers. Five out of 43 tracked markets remain trapped more than 10% below their January 2026 baselines. These economic outliers are all low- or middle-income countries: Chile (-19.7%), Argentina (-15.5%), Thailand (-12.8%), Indonesia (-12.5%), and Nigeria (-11.5%).
Analysts note that the initial energy-induced shock from recent geopolitical conflicts appears to be leaving long-term scars across these specific vulnerable regions.
In the Americas, the picture is highly fragmented. North American households are dealing with renewed trade and tariff anxieties following a breakdown in USMCA negotiations. While Canada is successfully using cheaper energy to buffer the trade friction for now, Mexico’s sentiment has simply flattened near its recent lows. Mexico did not suffer heavily when energy prices spiked earlier this year, which explains why it is not seeing a boost now that prices are normalizing.
Meanwhile, the overall U.S. ICS slipped 0.5 points to a four-week moving average of 89.3. However, this headline number masks a widening wealth gap: optimism among higher-income American adults actually surged by 4.7 points to 111.2. Further south, Colombia’s confidence recovery remains near an all-time high at 125.9, while Argentina and Chile remain the region’s hardest-hit casualties, down 10.9 and 18.2 points respectively since the outbreak of the Iran War. Brazil’s index sits at 119.2, remaining under pressure despite support from its commodity exports.
Across the Atlantic, Germany has emerged as a primary engine of the global sentiment recovery. Because Germany suffered one of the steepest drops in confidence when energy costs originally spiked, it is reaping the biggest rewards as those costs come back down. Italy and France are also showing steady signs of improvement.
Data from Germany’s June 28 reading highlights a massive 7.75-point weekly jump to 74.08, the largest single-week gain of any major market in the current economic cycle. This shift is deeply tied to European natural gas prices hitting four-month lows.
Interestingly, the demographic driving Germany’s current bounce is completely different from the country’s recovery following the 2022 energy crisis. In 2022, high- and middle-income households recovered at an identical pace, while lower-income homes lagged behind. This time, Germany’s middle-income segment (households earning between €40,000 and €100,000) is aggressively leading the way with a 14.4% gain from its April 2026 low point. That is more than double the growth rate seen in the €100,000+ high-income group (+5.9%). Lower-income households have yet to see any meaningful dividend from these falling bills. Economists view a middle-income-led recovery as far more durable and likely to translate into sustained consumer spending than a narrow, equity-driven high-income rebound.
In the Asia-Pacific region, China’s four-week moving average looks exceptionally strong on paper at 171.2—up 16.1 points since the war began. This outperformance is structurally supported by China’s access to Russian pipeline oil, which completely insulated it from the Hormuz shipping disruptions. However, its weekly spot index dropped for the second straight week, falling from an all-time high of 173.5 on June 14 to 161.9 on June 28. This 11.6-point drop over two weeks signals that Chinese domestic demand is cooling off independently of global energy pressures, leaving open the question of whether this is a normal cooling-off period or the start of a deeper structural slowdown.
Other parts of Asia are faring much worse. Southeast Asian export hubs continue to display severe, ongoing weakness due to sagging global demand for goods and high shipping fees. Since the war started, Malaysia’s moving average has dropped 11.5 points to 115.4, Thailand has dropped 9.1 points to 97.8, and Indonesia has fallen 13.3 points to 111.2.
On the policy front, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is preparing to release staffing plans for his new task forces aimed at fixing data quality, with a specific focus on survey data. Fed researchers have already been increasingly relying on independent data firms like Morning Consult to secure faster, more adaptable economic metrics.
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