Global consumer sentiment is showing signs of a steady, if uneven, recovery as of mid-May 2026. The latest data reveals that the global Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) 4-week moving average climbed to 94.3 during the week of May 10.
According to Morning Consult, this 0.7-point increase marks the fourth straight week of growth since the index hit a yearly low of 92.8 back in April. Despite the general upward trend, the global economic landscape remains deeply fractured by the ongoing Iran War, with some regions thriving while others struggle to keep their heads above water.
The standout performer remains China, where consumer sentiment has surged to an all-time high of 164.4. Analysts attribute this record-breaking optimism to China’s relative insulation from the war; specifically, the country’s reliance on Russian pipeline oil has shielded its economy from the massive supply chain disruptions currently plaguing the Strait of Hormuz.
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This domestic resilience is expected to serve as a regional buffer for economic growth and may provide the Chinese government with additional leverage in upcoming trade negotiations with the United States and Western allies.
In contrast, the outlook across the Americas is more tempered. The U.S. index slipped 1.8 points this week to 89.0, while Morning Consult’s U.S. Consumer Health Index (CHI) dipped into negative territory for the first time since late 2024.
This shift suggests that, when adjusted for inflation, actual spending growth in the U.S. has turned negative. Elsewhere in the region, Colombia leads with a sentiment score of 122.7, up 1.8% from January, while Mexico sits near multi-year lows at 106.9 due to concerns over U.S. tariff exposure.
The European theater shows a stark divide between nations. Markets like Ireland, Germany, and the Netherlands remain down by double digits compared to their pre-war baselines in January 2026. Turkey stands out as the only tracked European market currently above its January levels, posting a 6% gain.
The primary concern for advanced European economies remains the “export” of food insecurity. High energy prices are driving up the cost of fertilizer and transportation, which in turn is squeezing household food budgets.
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While traditional risk frameworks usually focus on developing nations like Nigeria or Argentina, the latest data shows a “broad-based deterioration” in food security across high-income countries. Canada and Japan recorded the largest year-over-year increases in food insecurity risk outside of Africa and the Middle East, with France, Italy, and Australia also showing measurable declines.
In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan and Australia continue to deal with high costs for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), though there is emerging optimism in Australia, where confidence levels typically follow Chinese trends with a one-to-two-month lag.
While many nations have recently announced long-term investments to diversify energy supply chains away from the Hormuz region, experts note that these projects will likely take several months to impact the daily costs facing consumers. For now, the global recovery remains a story of two worlds: those with direct access to secure energy and those still paying the price for the volatility in the Middle East.
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