Democrats hoping for a “Blue Wave” in the 2026 midterm elections may be in for a harsh dose of reality, according to CNN’s lead polling and data analyst, Harry Enten.
Enten outlined a series of headwinds facing the party—from lagging approval ratings to unfavorable polling trends and Republican-controlled redistricting efforts—that point toward a potentially significant loss of House seats.
Enten’s analysis hinges on a stark comparison between current generic congressional ballot data and the lead-up to the 2018 midterms, when Democrats made massive gains. In April 2017, Democrats held a slim three-point edge in the generic ballot, a margin that exploded to eight percentage points by October 2017.
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The crucial difference today? “The bottom line is, it hasn’t happened,” Enten noted. As of this October, the Democratic generic ballot advantage remains stalled at the same three-point margin it held back in April.
“Democrats have stayed basically steady. They have fallen off the pace,” Enten stated, expressing concern that a plus-three advantage may not be enough to hold the line, especially with redistricting looming.
Redistricting’s Edge: A Republican Path to Plus-Seven
The analyst painted a grim picture regarding redistricting, arguing that Republicans have far more opportunities to pick up seats than Democrats. Enten explained that Democratic strongholds like Maryland and Illinois are already heavily gerrymandered, while states like Massachusetts already have zero Republican-controlled districts, limiting potential gains.
“If both sides max out at this point, there are more Republican gains possible than Democratic gains,” Enten concluded.
The potential damage from redistricting alone, according to Enten’s modeling, could lead to a GOP gain of plus-seven House seats.
VRA Case Could Widen the Gap
Furthermore, the Supreme Court is currently hearing arguments on a monumental case concerning the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Enten cautioned that a ruling against the VRA could lead to the axing of several districts currently drawn along racial lines, primarily benefiting Republicans in the South. RELATED: Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson Gets Snippy With Lawyer During Hearing On Louisiana Race-Based Districts
If the VRA were gutted, Enten warned, the GOP’s potential gains could skyrocket. “If you add that in, then you could be looking about adding 10, 12, 15, 17 on top of this seven seats.”
The combination of stalled national polling and unfavorable redistricting dynamics has analysts like Enten worried that Democrats are heading into the 2026 midterms well behind the necessary pace to stave off a significant Republican wave.
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