Recent primary polling in key Midwestern states may be overestimating support for progressive and Democratic Socialist candidates by including too many younger voters, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said following an upset in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated state Representative Francesca Hong in the primary, despite pre-election polls showing Hong leading by roughly 20 percentage points. The outcome followed a similar pattern in Michigan, where pre-election polling overestimated progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed by about 10 points in the Democratic Senate primary.
Speaking with anchor John Berman on CNN, Enten noted that surveys showed substantial misses across back-to-back Great Lakes battleground contests.
“It happened again, Johnny B.,” Enten said. “Polls overstate lefties in Dem primaries. You know, last week it was ten points. You think ten points is a lot. How about 20 points in Wisconsin?”
Enten explained that the polling discrepancies appear linked to age demographics. Both El-Sayed in Michigan and Hong in Wisconsin performed strongest in counties with the largest share of voters under age 40.
“Who won the five counties with the most under the age of 40? That is 18 to 39. In the Michigan Senate, it was Abdul El-Sayed. He won all five. How about in Wisconsin governor? The exact same thing. In the youngest counties, that is where these lefties did the best,” Enten said. “And so, when you kind of look at the polling, you go, hey, wait a minute, maybe these polls had too many younger folks in them.”
Enten suggested that if polling samples consistently overrepresent younger demographics who turn out at lower rates on Election Day, the data may present an inaccurate picture of broader political trends.
“Maybe these polls are overestimating how much that Democratic socialism is rising within the Democratic Party, because in two key statewide races in a row, what we’ve seen is the lefties being vastly overestimated,” he said.
Berman and Enten also discussed local campaign dynamics that may have driven late shifts among undecided voters in Wisconsin. Berman pointed out late-breaking media coverage regarding Hong’s past comments criticizing Thanksgiving. Enten cited data indicating that only 8% of Americans report not celebrating Thanksgiving, arguing that holding deeply unpopular cultural positions can damage a candidate’s standing late in a race.
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