The long-standing Democratic stronghold on the Black electorate is showing its first major cracks in decades. According to a Thursday report from CNN data chief Harry Enten, President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are seeing a statistically significant rise in support among African Americans, marking a shift in party identification not seen in a generation.
The report highlights a measurable climb in Trump’s standing within the community. During this same point in his first term, Trump held a 12% approval rating among African Americans.
That figure has now risen to 16%. While Enten noted that the President has lost ground with several other demographics, Black voters represent a specific area of growth for the GOP.
“I see this as absolutely part of a bigger trend,” Enten told CNN’s Kate Bolduan. “Donald Trump’s Republican Party is gaining ground, not just him gaining in terms of his approval rating.”
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The data becomes even more stark when looking at party identification margins. In the early stages of Trump’s first term, Democrats enjoyed a massive 63-point advantage in party ID among Black voters. That lead has since seen a double-digit shift of 12 points toward the Republican Party. According to Gallup records dating back to 2006, the current Democratic lead is the smallest it has been in two decades.
“Republicans are chipping away at this long-term advantage that Democrats have had among African Americans,” Enten said. “We see it in terms of Trump’s approval rating, and we even see it to a wider degree among the party I.D. margin, where all of a sudden, there are a number of African Americans who are walking away from the Democratic Party and a number of them who are walking into the Republican tent.”
This shift arrives amid a tense legal and political backdrop. The Supreme Court recently issued a decision eroding sections of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, a landmark piece of legislation designed to prohibit racial discrimination at the polls. When informed of the Court’s ruling, President Trump’s response was direct: “I love it!”
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Despite the shift, Democrats still maintain a clear majority of the Black vote. However, the narrowing gap suggests a fundamental change in the political landscape.
As Enten concluded, “The Donald Trump-led Republican Party is making gains among African Americans that we, simply put, have not seen the Republican Party make in a generation.”
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