CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten issued a stark warning Monday, noting that President Donald Trump is seeing a significant erosion of support among Republican-leaning independents as the midterm elections approach.
According to data shared by Enten, only 53% of Republican-leaning independents currently approve of the president’s performance. This figure represents a 20-point decrease compared to the approval ratings Trump held with the same demographic at this stage of his first term.
The shift marks a sharp reversal from the 2024 election, when Trump secured 91% of the vote from this group.
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“Down he goes, an absolute collapse now,” Enten said during the broadcast. “Just 53% of independents who lean Republican now approve of the president of the United States. That’s very different from Republicans only. It was 83% at this point in term number one.”
Enten highlighted the math behind the shift, pointing out that the current 53% approval rating is a 38-point drop from the support level seen during the 2024 contest against Kamala Harris.
“I’m not that good at math, but I believe that is a 38-point drop,” Enten said. “As I said, this is a core group for Donald Trump. And they are waving adios, amigos, goodbye. We no longer support you, President of the United States. We are going in the other direction.”
The data analyst further explained that this cooling sentiment is extending to the Republican party as a whole. While Republican-leaning independents supported the GOP by 83 points in 2024, that margin has narrowed to 68 points.
Enten suggested these trends could have significant consequences for the 2026 midterm elections, which are roughly six months away.
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“These are not numbers that Republicans win with. These are numbers Republicans lose with,” Enten warned, adding that the “collapsing support” for the president is “absolutely making its way down ballot.”
These findings come alongside a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll showing Trump’s overall disapproval rating at a record-high 62% among all Americans. The poll specifically highlighted public dissatisfaction regarding foreign policy and the economy.
According to the data, 66% of Americans disapprove of the president’s actions regarding the Iran war, while 76% disapprove of his economic management following a 47% surge in gas prices since late February.
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