CNN’s chief data analyst, Harry Enten, highlighted an unexpected development in recent polling: a modest improvement in Republicans’ approval rating in Congress during the recent government shutdown.
Appearing on CNN, Enten noted that despite the common expectation that a government shutdown—with Republicans controlling the House, Senate, and White House—might damage the Republican brand, the opposite appears to have occurred.
A Quinnipiac poll released on October 22 indicated that Republicans’ net popularity in Congress improved by 5 points since the question was last asked in July.
This modest rise in approval was driven by improved opinions from both Republicans and Independents.
Despite this improvement, the poll data suggests Americans still hold an overall negative view of both parties in Congress:
- Congressional Republicans scored a -24 approval rating in the Quinnipiac poll.
- Congressional Democrats scored a significantly lower -41 approval rating.
The stark difference in approval appears to be rooted in the parties’ respective bases:
- 82% of registered Republicans approved of the congressional GOP.
- 58% of registered Democrats approved of congressional Democrats.
- Among Independents, 27% approved of Republicans, while 19% approved of Democrats.
While Republicans saw a modest bump in approval and currently poll better than Democrats in the Quinnipiac survey, the same poll found that 50% of Americans would prefer a Democrat-led Congress compared to 41% who would prefer a Republican-led one.
However, Enten cautioned against overstating this advantage for Democrats in the broader context of the generic congressional ballot:
- Enten’s aggregation of polls shows Democrats with only a 3% lead in generic congressional ballot polls, a figure that aligns with RealClearPolitics’ aggregation.
- Enten noted this is an “alarmingly low” lead for an opposition party heading into midterms, pointing out that in October 2017, Democrats were polling at a +11 lead.
Enten’s segment followed recent appearances in which he highlighted less favorable figures for the GOP, including reports on President Trump’s low economic approval ratings and a recent Gallup poll showing more Americans identifying as Democrats than Republicans.
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