If you were planning on spending the 2026 hurricane season boarding up windows and stress-eating canned peaches, the folks at Colorado State University suggest you might be able to take a breath—at least for now.
In their latest outlook, the CSU team is predicting a “somewhat below-average” Atlantic season, largely because the Pacific is about to throw a giant, atmospheric wet blanket on the party.
The culprit? A robust El Niño. While that name might sound like a friendly neighborhood food truck, it actually refers to a climate pattern that cranks up westerly winds. These winds create “wind shear,” which acts like a giant ceiling fan for the Atlantic, shredding storms before they can get their act together.
The stat sheet for 2026 is looking a little leaner than usual. Researchers are calling for 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. For context, the typical year sees about 14, seven, and three, respectively.
READ: Quiet Forecast, Loud Warning: Florida Officials Urge Prep As 2026 Hurricane Season Approaches
“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023 seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, the report’s lead author. He pointed out that while these “throwback” years were generally quieter, early April forecasts are notoriously fickle—atmospheric science’s version of a “maybe” RSVP.
Florida residents in particular might like the math this year. The probability of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline is sitting at 32%, a decent drop from the historical 43% average. The East Coast and Florida Peninsula are looking at a 15% chance, which is better than the usual one-in-five odds.
The CSU team even brought in some “new blood” for the 2026 forecast: a machine-learning climate model named ACE2. While the old-school statistical models were a bit more pessimistic, the AI and the rest of the tech squad are all leaning toward a calmer year. It’s a welcome change of pace from 2025, which gave us the $9 billion headache known as Hurricane Melissa.
However, the team from the Rockies was quick to remind everyone that “below-average” isn’t a hall pass to be reckless.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” warned CSU Professor Michael Bell. In other words: keep the batteries handy, because even a quiet year only needs one loud moment to ruin your weekend.
The team will check back in with updates on June 10, July 8, and August 5 to see if El Niño is still playing defense.
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