Colorado State University researchers maintain their prediction, citing warm Atlantic waters and low odds of El Niño
Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers are standing by their forecast for a slightly above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, according to their latest update. The CSU Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software (TC-RAMS) team is predicting a total of 16 named storms, with eight becoming hurricanes and three reaching major hurricane strength (Category 3, 4, or 5).
This updated prediction, released Thursday, includes the four named storms that have already formed this season: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter. The season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, is expected to have activity at about 115% of the average season from 1991–2020.
READ: NOAA And CSU Forecast Above-Normal 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Urge Preparedness
The primary drivers behind this forecast are above-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and the anticipated absence of an El Niño climate pattern. Hurricanes are fueled by warm ocean water, and the tropical Atlantic has warmed faster than normal in recent weeks. Additionally, a warm Atlantic contributes to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere, both of which are favorable for hurricane formation.
The tropical Pacific is currently in an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral state. El Niño typically increases vertical wind shear, which can tear apart developing hurricanes. With the odds of El Niño being low (6% per the latest NOAA outlook), the atmosphere is expected to be more conducive for storm development.
However, the researchers note a higher degree of uncertainty in this forecast compared to last year. They point to unusually strong Caribbean wind shear observed in June and July. While high shear typically leads to less active seasons, several climate models are forecasting this shear to drop considerably during August, which is a key period for hurricane development.
READ: Triple Threat: Dexter, Henriette, And Ivo Churn The Atlantic And Pacific
The report also provides an outlook on the probability of major hurricanes making landfall. The forecast team predicts a 48% chance of a major hurricane hitting the entire U.S. coastline, which is slightly above the long-term average of 43%. This includes a 24% chance for the U.S. East Coast (including the Florida peninsula) and a 31% chance for the Gulf Coast. The Caribbean has a 52% chance of a major hurricane landfall.
This year’s forecast is the 42nd issued by the CSU team, which was initially launched in 1984 by the late Professor Bill Gray. The current report was authored by Phil Klotzbach, Professor Michael Bell, and Research Scientist Levi Silvers. The researchers emphasize that their forecast is a general estimate of activity and that coastal residents should always be prepared.
As Dr. Bell stated, “It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you.”
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