A fresh statewide survey has sent a shockwave through Florida’s political landscape, revealing that Republican Representative Byron Donalds and Democratic challenger David Jolly are locked in a dead heat.
The poll, conducted by The Public Sentiment Institute (TPSI), shows both candidates sitting at 40 percent among likely voters, with another 16 percent still sitting on the fence. These numbers suggest a much tighter contest than many expected in a state that has trended heavily toward the GOP in recent years.
The data underscores a significant generational and demographic split. Jolly has found a stronghold among younger voters aged 18 to 29, while Donalds maintains a firm grip on men and the 65-and-older crowd.
READ: Byron Donalds Crushes GOP Field As Florida Governor’s Race Looks To Be A Landslide
When looking at race and education, Donalds draws his strongest support from white voters without a college degree at 47 percent. Conversely, Jolly has seen a surge in support from Asian voters, capturing 70 percent of that demographic.
This competitive snapshot comes despite Florida’s recent history as a Republican stronghold. President Donald Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024, and Democrats haven’t held the governor’s mansion in over two decades.
While the influx of conservative retirees and a shift in Hispanic voting patterns helped solidify GOP control, Democrats are betting that historical midterm trends—where the sitting president’s party often loses ground—could shift the momentum.
Donalds entered the race in February following an endorsement from Trump, who described the congressman as a “fighter” and claimed he was “so far ahead in the polls.”
On the other side, Jolly, a former Republican congressman who left the party in 2018 and registered as a Democrat this past April, has positioned himself as an alternative to the current status quo.
“Floridians are ready to move past the division and the daily political games,” Jolly posted on X. “They want leadership focused on real results.”
READ: Florida Faces Dual Legal Challenges Over New Congressional Map
Donalds has focused his messaging on fiscal management, posting on X that his administration would be “ruthlessly efficient with the dollars you trust us with.”
Despite the tied results in the TPSI poll, other data suggest a varied race; a late-March Emerson College poll gave Donalds a five-point lead. Furthermore, TPSI’s own data shows that if Republican James Fishback were the nominee, he would lead Jolly 43 percent to 38 percent.
The TPSI survey reached 687 likely voters on April 27 and carries a margin of error of 3.7 percent. While individual polls show a neck-and-neck battle, major national forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball continue to classify the Florida seat as “safe” or “solid” for the Republican party.
Voters will head to the polls for the primary on August 18 to finalize the matchups for the November general election.
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