Hurricane Melissa is rapidly intensifying over the Western Atlantic, presenting a “very dangerous and deadly situation” across the Caribbean, even as AccuWeather experts confirm the storm is not expected to directly impact Florida.
Melissa has already turned deadly, with at least four fatalities reported in Haiti and the Dominican Republic as of Saturday afternoon, where residents are bracing for additional wind, rain, and storm surge.
The storm strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane early Sunday morning and is now forecast to reach devastating Category 5 designation (maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or greater) early this week.
Melissa is currently tracking northwest and is fueled by some of the warmest waters in the Western Atlantic and a decrease in wind shear. This rapid intensification is projected to culminate in a landfall along the southern shore of Jamaica at approximately 9 a.m. Tuesday, less than 40 miles west of Kingston.
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AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter warns that the low-lying critical infrastructure near Kingston—including a key power plant, airport, shipping port, and water treatment plant—is vulnerable to a life-threatening storm surge of 6-10 feet, with surge potentially reaching 10-15 feet near the landfall location.
Following Jamaica, Melissa is forecast to carve a destructive path through the northern Caribbean, with a second landfall expected in eastern Cuba leading up to midweek. Rainfall totals in Cuba are projected to range between 12-18 inches, raising the risk of catastrophic mudslides and road washouts in the varied terrain.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex Duffus stressed that the storm’s slow movement will “greatly increase the risk of catastrophic flash flooding and deadly mudslides,” potentially escalating into a humanitarian crisis that could cut off entire communities from aid.
While Melissa is expected to impact parts of the Bahamas and potentially bring indirect effects near Bermuda, forecasters maintain a low risk of “direct” wind and rain impacts reaching the US East Coast.
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