Byron Donalds leads the 2026 Florida Republican primary for governor with 43 percent support, followed by James Fishback at 12 percent, Jay Collins at 11 percent, and Paul Renner at 2 percent, according to a statewide poll of 500 likely Republican primary voters released by Cygnal.
The survey, conducted July 12–13, 2026, shows that 31 percent of voters remain undecided. Challengers and undecided voters combined make up 57 percent of the primary electorate.
“Florida Republicans know some of these names much better than others, and that is a major part of what is driving the early ballot,” said Mitch Brown, partner and pollster at Cygnal. “This is an early race with a clear leader, but also a large undecided share with some meaningful room for movement from the lesser-known names as voters learn more about the rest of the field.”
Candidate name recognition closely aligns with current polling numbers. Donalds holds a 75 percent name ID among likely primary voters, compared to 35 percent for Collins, 31 percent for Fishback, and 17 percent for Renner. Significant portions of the electorate reported having no opinion or having never heard of the candidates challenging Donalds.
The poll indicates that undecided voters skew female and slightly more moderate than the broader Republican primary electorate. These voters are heavily concentrated in North Florida and the Tampa media market, with top concerns focused on inflation, property taxes, and property insurance.
Voting patterns also reveal generational distinctions across the field. Donalds draws his strongest support from older voters, whereas Fishback performs best among younger voters, particularly younger men. Cygnal’s demographic analysis categorized the primary electorate into three distinct groups: Young Populists, Disengaged Moderates, and Establishment Loyalists.
“What stands out here is that familiarity is a major advantage right now, but the unsettled voters are definable, reachable, and focused on practical concerns that matter in everyday life,” Brown said.
The poll surveyed 500 likely 2026 Florida Republican primary voters statewide and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.
READ: Survey Ranks 5 Florida Cities Where Out-Of-State Movers Suffer Serious House Shock
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