The race for Florida Governor is heating up as frontrunner Congressman Byron Donalds locked in a new wave of key conservative endorsements, cementing his statewide support even as a rival campaign released polling pointing to a tightening two-man contest.
On Tuesday, state Senators Don Gaetz, Tom Wright, and Danny Burgess, alongside State Representative Brad Yeager, officially threw their support behind Donalds. The endorsements span geographic regions from the Panhandle to Tampa Bay and the East Coast, adding to Donalds’ existing coalition.
The congressman has already secured backing from the entire Florida Cabinet, the incoming Florida House Speaker and Senate President, and U.S. Senators Ashley Moody and Rick Scott.
“From the Panhandle to Tampa Bay to Florida’s East Coast, these leaders represent every corner of our state — and I’m honored to have their support,” Donalds said. “Don Gaetz, Danny Burgess, Tom Wright, and Brad Yeager have each worked tirelessly for the people they serve. Together, we’ll continue fighting to protect our freedoms, strengthen our economy, safeguard our communities, and ensure the Sunshine State remains the best place in America to live, work, and raise a family.”
A Clash of Public and Internal Polling
The endorsements land amid a battle of contrasting data over where the Republican primary actually stands.
A newly released independent survey from the Tyson Group—a polling firm that has historically worked for Governor Ron DeSantis—shows Donalds holding a dominant 48% of the vote. In that survey, the rest of the GOP field remains in single digits, with Lt. Gov. Jay Collins at 9%, investor James Fishback at 8%, and former House Speaker Paul Renner at 4%. The Tyson Group memo concluded that Donalds is, “for all practical purposes, the Republican nominee for Governor.”
However, an internal poll conducted on behalf of Collins’ campaign by national pollster David Jay Wolfson presents a very different picture. That survey of 934 likely Republican voters, conducted July 2 through July 6, shows Donalds in the lead but sitting at 37.5%, while Collins has risen to 20.2%. Fishback follows at 9.6%, with Renner at 2.1%. More than 28% of those surveyed in the Collins poll remain undecided.
The Collins campaign attributes his rise to a multimillion-dollar statewide television advertising campaign launched last month.
“The numbers tell a very different story than they did just a few weeks ago,” said Collins’ campaign manager, Ted Veerman, pointing to the internal metrics. “Byron Donalds has not reached escape velocity despite entering the race with nearly universal name recognition and President Trump’s endorsement. At the same time, Lieutenant Governor Collins has surged since commencing a multimillion-dollar state advertising blitz early last month. Of particular note, former Speaker Renner is dead in the water, and this is now a two-man race between Jay Collins and Byron Donalds. Jay Collins is the only viable alternative to Byron Donalds.”
Veerman added that Donalds’ lead has “significantly shrunk” as voters see Collins on television and in local communities. Collins, a former Green Beret, previously alluded to his campaign’s internal data, stating earlier in the week that “the data has shown we have a real path to victory.”
Despite the conflicting poll numbers, Donalds continues to leverage a massive fundraising advantage and prominent endorsements to maintain his frontrunner status as the primary election approaches.
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