Federal forecasters on Thursday reaffirmed expectations for a slower-than-average Atlantic hurricane season, citing a strengthening El Niño pattern in the Pacific that continues to suppress storm development.
In its updated midseason outlook, NOAA’s National Weather Service projected a total of 7 to 13 named storms for the six-month season running June 1 through November 30. Of those systems, forecasters expect 2 to 6 to reach hurricane status, with 0 to 2 potentially intensifying into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.
The revised figures, which include the two tropical storms that formed earlier this summer, reflect a 75% probability of below-normal activity across the Atlantic basin. NOAA assigned a 20% probability to a near-normal season and a 5% chance of above-normal activity, maintaining a trajectory similar to the initial forecast issued in May.
An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Through early August, the 2026 Atlantic season has generated two tropical storms—Arthur and Bertha—and no hurricanes. Tropical Storm Arthur developed in mid-June in the Gulf of Mexico off the Texas coastline, generating tornadoes along the Gulf Coast and dropping record rainfall across parts of Louisiana. Tropical Storm Bertha also formed in the Gulf south of the Florida Panhandle before pushing ashore in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana.
“Inland rainfall is a major cause of damage from tropical storms and hurricanes, as Arthur demonstrated,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “That’s why it’s important to prepare for every storm that’s projected to impact your area, even if it never reaches hurricane strength.”
Meteorologists attribute the quiet Atlantic conditions primarily to El Niño, which developed across the equatorial Pacific in June and increases vertical wind shear, a phenomenon that tears apart developing storm systems. Near-average Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures and a neutral West African monsoon are also contributing factors.
“When El Niño emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity, and this El Niño continues to get stronger every month,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Compared to a mature El Niño, other mechanisms play a smaller role in determining the number and intensity of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin.”
While El Niño suppresses Atlantic storms, it creates favorable atmospheric conditions across the Pacific. NOAA kept its Eastern Pacific outlook unchanged, forecasting an above-average season with 15 to 22 named storms. That basin has already recorded seven named storms, two hurricanes, and one major hurricane. An above-normal season is also anticipated in the Central Pacific, with 5 to 13 named storms and tropical depressions projected.
Agency officials noted that seasonal outlooks measure overall basin activity rather than landfall locations, which depend on localized, short-term steering currents that can only be tracked several days reliably in advance.
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