Billionaire’s Frustration Sparks Talk of Third-Party Bid, But History and Experts Cast Doubt
Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest man, is no stranger to ambitious ventures. From electric cars to space exploration, he’s redefined industries. Now, he’s setting his sights on what many political observers consider the “great white whale” of American politics: a viable third party.
Frustrated by Republican lawmakers’ support for the “Big Beautiful Bill,” Musk has repeatedly floated the idea of forming a new “America Party” to appeal to disaffected fiscal conservatives and libertarians, even threatening to bankroll primary challenges against GOP incumbents.
However, the path to a successful third party in the United States is littered with the remnants of past attempts.
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While figures like George Wallace in 1968 (carrying five Southern states) and Ross Perot in 1992 (securing nearly 19% of the popular vote) made significant splashes, neither managed to break the entrenched two-party duopoly for the presidency.
The Hurdles of American Electoral Mechanics
The structural impediments facing a new party are formidable. The winner-take-all nature of the Electoral College and first-past-the-post voting in congressional races leave little room for new contenders to gain traction beyond a “spoiler” role.
This means a new party would need to win outright in multiple states to have any shot — a virtually impossible task without displacing one of the existing major parties.
Ranked-Choice Voting: A Double-Edged Sword?
One potential avenue for third parties, ranked-choice voting (RCV), is gaining some traction, but it’s not without its own complexities. Only Maine and Alaska currently utilize RCV for statewide races, with Washington D.C. recently mandating it. Conversely, 16 mostly red states have moved to ban it outright.
A recent Political Behavior study, analyzing over 3 million ballots cast in RCV elections across Alaska, Maine, New York City, and San Francisco, revealed significant challenges. The research found that in a typical ranked-choice race, nearly 1 in 20 voters (4.8%) improperly marked their ballot in at least one way. These improper marks, which include “overvoting” (selecting more than one candidate for a ranking), “overranking” (selecting the same candidate for multiple rankings), and “skipping” (leaving a ranking blank but filling in a subsequent one), were found to be consistent with voter confusion.
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The study further highlights concerning disparities. In New York City precincts, higher concentrations of non-white voters and lower-income households tended to have higher rates of ballot mismarks. For instance, precincts that are 100% Black or 100% Hispanic had mismarking rates between 3.0 to 4.8 percentage points higher than 100% white precincts in Democratic primaries. Similarly, precincts with more people living below the poverty line also exhibited higher mismarking rates across both Democratic and Republican contests. Ballots in RCV races were also found to be about 10 times more likely to be rejected due to an improper mark than votes in non-ranked choice races.
Public Appetite vs. Political Reality
Despite these historical and structural hurdles, public sentiment for an alternative is strong. A 2023 Gallup poll revealed that nearly two-thirds of Americans believe a “third major party” is needed due to frustration with the Republican-Democratic duopoly.
While this discontent has persisted for over a decade, the 2024 Gallup poll showed a slight decrease, with 58% of Americans still feeling a third party was needed, down from a record high of 63% in 2023. This sentiment remains particularly high among Independents, with 69% expressing support in 2024, compared to 53% of Democrats and 48% of Republicans.
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However, Musk’s preferred ideology, libertarianism, faces its own challenges in finding a broad base of support. Libertarian Party presidential candidates have averaged only 1% of the popular vote since 2000, with Gary Johnson’s 3.3% showing in 2016 being an outlier. Even Senator Rand Paul, arguably the Senate’s most libertarian member, finished a distant fifth in the 2016 Iowa caucuses with only 4.54% of the vote before withdrawing.
The Power of the Purse: Influence Within, Not Beyond?
While a national third party might be a long shot, Musk’s billions could still wield significant influence within the existing Republican Party.
The Senate Leadership Fund, a prominent Super PAC, has demonstrated how targeted financial infusions can reshape primary outcomes. For instance, they poured nearly $8 million into Alabama’s 2017 special election to support former Senator Luther Strange and reportedly spent around $5 million in 2022 to protect centrist Republican Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski from a Trump-backed challenger.
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Yet, money isn’t a guaranteed victory. Musk’s record-breaking $22 million contribution to Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race in April, supporting a conservative candidate, ultimately couldn’t prevent the liberal judge from winning by almost nine points. Democrats experienced a similar outcome in 2024, with former Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign reportedly raising over $1 billion, only for Donald Trump to secure a decisive Electoral College victory with less than half the campaign funds.
Adding to the complexity are campaign finance laws. While Super PACs can receive and spend unlimited sums, direct funding of a new political party can be far more restricted until it achieves official party status under Federal Election Commission regulations.
Ultimately, political experts remain skeptical of Musk’s ability to single-handedly birth a viable national third party. Whether the “America Party” remains a rhetorical flourish or somehow defies historical odds, the venture promises to be a fascinating chapter in the ongoing saga of American politics.
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