Colorado State University hurricane researchers released their initial 2026 outlook today, projecting a “somewhat below-average” Atlantic hurricane season. This early forecast, the 43rd of its kind from CSU, suggests that the heavy activity seen in previous years may take a breather as global climate patterns undergo a significant shift.
The university’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software Team is calling for 13 named storms this year. Of those, experts anticipate six will reach hurricane strength, with two likely becoming major hurricanes—classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. These figures sit just below the historical benchmarks of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major ones.
The primary driver behind this quiet forecast is the expected return of El Niño. While the tropical Pacific is currently seeing weak La Niña conditions, meteorologists expect a rapid transition to El Niño by the peak of the season, which runs from August through October.
El Niño creates upper-level westerly winds that tear across the Caribbean and Atlantic, producing vertical wind shear. This shear acts as a disruptor, making it much harder for tropical systems to form or strengthen.
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“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2023 seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at CSU and the report’s lead author. He noted that while these “analog years” usually resulted in lower activity, the range of outcomes in the past highlights the high level of uncertainty present in early April.
The team’s modeling efforts involve a mix of historical data and cutting-edge technology. For the first time, researchers are using a machine-learning climate model called the Ai2 Climate Emulator (ACE2) alongside traditional models from the UK Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
While one statistical model suggested a slightly busier season, the majority of the guidance, including the new AI tool, pointed toward a downturn in activity.
The forecast comes on the heels of a destructive 2025 season, which saw activity at 105% of the long-term average.
Last year was marked by the devastation of Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm that hit Jamaica, claiming 95 lives and causing $9 billion in damages. For 2026, researchers expect activity to drop to roughly 75% of the average.
Despite the lower overall numbers, the team released specific landfall probabilities that remain a concern for coastal residents. There is a 32% chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline this year, compared to the long-term average of 43%.
Specifically, the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, has a 15% probability of a major hurricane landfall, while the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Texas faces a 20% probability.
Research scientist Michael Bell emphasized that low averages do not mean residents should let their guard down.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” Bell said. The CSU team plans to issue updated forecasts on June 10, July 8, and August 5 as atmospheric conditions become clearer.
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