The race to replace Ron DeSantis as Florida’s chief executive tightened on Monday as Lt. Governor Jay Collins officially launched his 2026 gubernatorial bid via social media. Collins joins an increasingly crowded and combative Republican primary field that already features former House Speaker Paul Renner and U.S. Representative Byron Donalds.
While Collins enters as the sitting Lieutenant Governor, the early dynamics of the race appear heavily influenced by Mar-a-Lago. Donalds, who secured an early endorsement from President Donald Trump, has emerged as the clear frontrunner in initial polling.
The Donalds campaign wasted no time defining the new competitive landscape. Ryan Smith, chief strategist for the Donalds campaign, issued a blistering statement Monday characterizing any opposition to the Congressman as futile.
“Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds is the only proven conservative fighter who can unite Republicans, deliver on the President’s America First agenda, crush the Democrats, and make Florida more affordable,” Smith told the Tampa Free Press. “Anyone running against Byron is an anti-Trump RINO and will be soundly defeated in the Republican primary.”
Governor DeSantis has yet to name a preferred successor, notably stating only that he is not currently supporting Donalds or Renner. On the Democratic side, the field includes former Congressman David Jolly and Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings.
Polling Shows Steep Hill for Challengers
Fresh data released by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates suggests Donalds holds a commanding lead, driven largely by the former President’s backing. The survey of 600 likely Florida Republican primary voters, conducted January 4-6, 2026, shows Donalds dominating every ballot variation tested.
In a hypothetical four-way primary, Donalds leads Collins 45% to 6%. The gap widens significantly among voters aware of the Trump endorsement, with Donalds surging to 73% support compared to Collins’ 5%.
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The memo also indicates that Collins’ early spending has yet to yield significant name ID, claiming that “any sugar high from Jay Collins’ multimillion-dollar ad buy has completely dissipated,” with only 16% of respondents recalling his advertisements.
Even in scenarios involving Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis—who has not declared a run—Donalds maintains a lead, polling at 39% to her 26%.
Voters will head to the polls for the primary election on August 18, setting the stage for the general election on November 3.
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