It’s almost that time of year when we, in Florida, live in the “cone of uncertainty”. For those of you new to the sunshine state, you are in for a treat.
The forecast for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season looks much like last season, 16 to 20 named tropical storms are what the meteorologists at AccuWeather predict this year.
Nearly as many as last year according to AccuWeather’s Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski.
“Unfortunately, another active season this year,” said Kottlowski. “Of those named storms we believe 6 to 8 will become hurricanes. Of those hurricanes we expect 3 to 5 of those hurricanes to be major hurricanes.”
About four to six direct impacts are predicted for 2022.
The official start of the hurricane season is on June 1st which is still two months away, but once again the forecast calls for a chance of a pre-season storm developing.
Three to five of the hurricanes are projected to have winds exceeding 111 mph, and four to six are forecast to directly impact the U.S. The forecast also gave a “high chance” of a system forming before the June 1st tropical season kickoff.
“The last 7 years we’ve had pre-season development,” said Kottlowski, “and conditions have been very favorable for pre-season development for one reason and that is very warm water.”
“With less wind shear in the atmosphere, there will be one fewer tropical hindrance in play,” the AccuWeather report said. Kottlowski noted that a shift to a neutral phase could occur during the summer but if La Niña remains in place, or even intensifies, then it’s possible that there could be more than 20 storms.”
“Bottom line, this year we have La Nina,” said Kottlowski, “which means less (wind)shear, and very warm water which brings us more energy to those storms. That’s why this season will be another active season.”
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