The upcoming 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is bringing a higher risk of tropical storms to the central and eastern Gulf Coast, the Carolinas, and parts of coastal Virginia, according to the newly released forecast from AccuWeather.
Forecasters expect 11 to 16 named storms to develop this year. Out of those, 4 to 7 are predicted to become hurricanes, and 2 to 4 could strengthen into major hurricanes, which are Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Between 3 and 5 of these storms are expected to directly impact the United States.
While many people look at a storm’s category to judge its danger, meteorologists warn that this traditional method misses a lot of the big picture. The 50-year-old Saffir-Simpson scale only measures a hurricane’s maximum wind speed. It does not factor in heavy rainfall, storm surge, or how much damage a storm might cause further inland.
To give people a better idea of a storm’s true danger, forecasters are pointing to a different tool called the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for Hurricanes. This six-point scale evaluates multiple threats at the same time, including wind, flash flooding, storm surge, coastal flooding, and the total expected economic loss.
Experts point to past storms as a clear example of why measuring wind alone isn’t enough.
READ: Early-Season Atlantic Scare? Google AI Flags Possible Pre-June Hurricane Spark
“Helene was a tropical storm that did not meet the threshold of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale when it moved into the southern Appalachians with historic rainfall that caused catastrophic flooding,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter explained. “More than 100 lives were tragically lost in flash floods. AccuWeather warned of a ‘once-in-a-generation storm’ and rated Helene as a ‘4’ on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for Hurricanes.”
The new forecast is a reminder for residents along the East Coast and Gulf Coast to look beyond wind categories and prepare for all potential types of storm damage as the season draws near.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, though tropical development may begin earlier due to exceptionally warm waters. The 2026 season is forecast to fall below the 10-year average for both total storms and hurricanes, even at the higher end of AccuWeather’s forecast.
“It’s very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of the forecast,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “Even if it’s expected to be a slightly below average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States.”
Areas with a higher-than-historical-average risk of significant tropical impacts in 2026 include the central and eastern Gulf Coast, the Carolinas, and parts of the Virginia coastline. Meanwhile, central and southern Texas face a lower-than-historical-average risk. AccuWeather considers a direct landfall, a storm passing within 60 miles of the coast, tropical-storm-force winds on land, flooding from a tropical system, or more than 2 feet of storm surge as a direct U.S. impact.
Several key factors will influence how the season plays out. First, a developing El Niño is expected to increase disruptive wind shear and reduce storm activity, especially later in the season. AccuWeather long-range experts say there is a 15% possibility of a Super El Niño developing in the second half of the hurricane season. The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10, and if a Super El Niño occurs, there could be even less activity in the Atlantic. On average, El Niño seasons produce about 10 named storms and five hurricanes, compared to 15 storms and eight hurricanes during La Niña years. Neutral seasons average 13 named storms and seven hurricanes.
In contrast, exceptionally warm Atlantic waters will act as fuel. This heat extends hundreds of feet deep, fueling stronger storms and increasing the risk of rapid intensification.
“Water temperatures across much of the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic are forecast to reach exceptionally warm levels again this summer. That heat extends hundreds of feet below the surface, providing additional fuel for storms,” DaSilva said. “As a result, we are very concerned about the risk of rapid intensification this hurricane season.”
Another factor is “homegrown development” near the U.S., meaning storms may form close to land in the Gulf, western Caribbean, or western Atlantic off the Southeast U.S. coast.
“Storms that form within a few hundred miles of the coast can leave people, businesses, and officials with less time to prepare and evacuate,” DaSilva explained. “These ‘homegrown development’ storms that spin up near the U.S. coast can pose bigger threats with a lot less time to react, compared to storms that form off the coast of Africa and take a week or more to trek across the open Atlantic.”
The position of the Bermuda High may also steer more storms away from the U.S., especially in the western Atlantic, while Saharan dust from Africa can periodically suppress storm development in the Atlantic Main Development Region.
Parts of the western Caribbean are considered especially vulnerable this year as people continue to rebuild and recover from last year’s devastating impacts from Hurricane Melissa’s historic landfall as a Category 5 storm in Jamaica. Cuba is also highly vulnerable due to an ongoing energy crisis and the risk of prolonged island-wide power outages.
Following the first hurricane season in a decade without a U.S. hurricane landfall, AccuWeather experts warn that the risk of direct U.S. impacts is elevated this year. Even with fewer storms expected overall, there is potential for multiple direct U.S. impacts this season, including early-season or even pre-season development.
“There is no reason to let your guard down this year. It only takes one storm to cause major damage, disruption and heartache,” DaSilva said. “Review your insurance coverage, safety plans, and local evacuation routes now. Make sure your emergency supplies are stocked up.”
AccuWeather hurricane experts emphasize that seasons with fewer named storms compared to the historical average can still produce destructive outcomes. For example, the 2025 season produced three extremely powerful Category 5 hurricanes despite near-average named storms. Similarly, the 1992 season had just seven named storms, but it included Hurricane Andrew, which became one of the most destructive U.S. hurricanes on record.
Please make a small donation to the Tampa Free Press to help sustain independent journalism. Your contribution enables us to continue delivering high-quality, local, and national news coverage.
Sign up: Subscribe to our free newsletter for a curated selection of top stories delivered straight to your inbox
