The global Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) four-week moving average rose to 99.1 in the week ending July 12, marking the twelfth consecutive week of recovery since hitting a low of 93.2 on April 19.
According to newly released data from Morning Consult, the gains reflect survey sentiment collected while a ceasefire between the United States and Iran was collapsing, rather than after the conflict officially reescalated.
The data highlights clear economic divisions established during the first round of the conflict, which are now shaping risks for the second round. Energy-importing markets that failed to recover during the temporary truce—including Chile, Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, and Thailand—remain pinned 13 to 20 points below their January 2026 baselines.
Conversely, commodity-insulated markets and Gulf energy exporters continue to hold near or above their baseline levels.
In the Americas, the U.S. consumer sentiment moving average remained flat at 90.1. Higher-income consumers dropped 2.8 points to 108.4 following declines in the S&P 500, while middle-income adults gained 1.7 points to reach 92.2.
In Latin America, Brazil and Colombia emerged as regional leaders at 119.7 and 122.4, respectively, largely insulated from shipping and pricing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Chile proved to be the region’s most vulnerable market, sitting at 82.9, which is 19.6 points below its baseline. Economic declines in Argentina remained driven by domestic factors rather than the geopolitical conflict.
European markets showed mixed responses. Germany’s three-week recovery slowed, gaining just 1.8 points to remain 1.7 points below its January baseline. While the Netherlands recorded a 15-point week-on-week spike, analysts categorized it as an isolated market movement rather than a broader European trend. Spain and France maintained modest cushions above their baselines, while Greece retained the continent’s largest deficit at 20.7 points below baseline. The United Kingdom remained relatively insulated due to domestic North Sea production and long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts.
Across the Asia-Pacific region, China’s moving average stood at 166.2, marking a continuous weekly decline since June 21 after peaking at 176.2. Despite the pullback, state-managed energy prices and overland pipeline infrastructure are expected to keep Chinese consumers insulated from maritime pricing pressures.
Japan and South Korea remain highly vulnerable due to their heavy dependence on LNG and exposure to the Strait of Hormuz, especially as household energy bills have yet to see relief from the first round of the conflict. South Korea’s 8.0 point week-on-week gain is attributed to the timing of the survey prior to the ceasefire’s collapse. Indonesia remains the region’s most structurally stressed market, showing no ceasefire recovery and ending at 112.6. Australia, a major LNG exporter, is expected to see trade improvements from higher global energy prices, though domestic household energy costs may partially offset those gains.
In the Middle East and Africa, Gulf nations continue to benefit directly from elevated energy prices. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, operating with increased fiscal space due to oil prices exceeding $78 per barrel, are projected to lead global sentiment. Egypt is seeing indirect benefits as maritime tanker traffic reroutes away from the Strait of Hormuz and through the Suez Canal, boosting revenue.
Israel registered a 19.8 point week-on-week bounce during the ceasefire, but that gain faces immediate reversal risk as the July 12 data represents the final reading before the conflict resumed. Nigeria’s sentiment remains in a domestic decline due to currency weakness and inflation, with the renewed international conflict expected to add further pressure.
Data analysis reveals three distinct market regimes resulting from the energy shock. The non-recovered energy-importing cohort has not crossed its baseline since early February, keeping consumer demand depressed. A secondary group consisting of Germany, the Netherlands, South Korea, Spain, and France saw a partial recovery to 2.4 points above baseline, though the growth was heavily concentrated in the Netherlands and South Korea. Meanwhile, commodity-insulated nations like Brazil, Colombia, and Canada remained stable within a tight 4-point band throughout the conflict.
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