A massive tropical rainstorm spinning off the Texas coast is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Arthur by early Wednesday. Even if the system fails to gain an official name, meteorologists warn that its primary threat—widespread, torrential rainfall—poses a life-threatening flooding risk across the southeastern United States over the coming days.
The National Hurricane Center classified the system as a Potential Tropical Cyclone on Tuesday morning, prompting a Tropical Storm Watch from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. To officially earn the name Arthur, the disturbance must develop a clearly defined circulation with maximum sustained winds reaching at least 39 mph.
Whether it hits that threshold depends entirely on where the storm’s center travels. “The key to whether this tropical rainstorm will focus enough wind energy to become a named tropical storm (Arthur) will hinge on its proximity to warm waters of the Gulf,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
He noted that while tropical storms can sometimes form over swampy coastal terrain, “ideally, the center of this rainstorm would have to be over the Gulf for further organization and strengthening.” Because the system is expected to track close to the coast for only a short duration, meteorologists say rapid intensification into a major hurricane is unlikely.
Instead, the storm’s main payload is water. The system is drawing from a massive pool of moisture fed by the remnants of the eastern Pacific’s Tropical Storm Cristina, a tropical wave from Africa, a stalled frontal boundary, and the jet stream.
As the rainstorm creeps northeastward along the Texas coast through Thursday, it will dump immense amounts of water. A broad territory from South Texas to eastern Alabama is projected to receive 4 to 8 inches of rain. A substantial portion of that area will see 8 to 12 inches over a multiple-day span, with isolated areas potentially experiencing a maximum of 20 inches. Downpours could dump 2 to 3 inches of rain per hour in the most intense pockets, easily overwhelming municipal drainage systems.
The timing of the storm will impact major transit corridors and events. “A significant flood risk exists each day this week, shifting slowly eastward from Texas into Wednesday to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia during the second half of the week,” said Dan DePodwin, AccuWeather Vice President of Forecast Operations.
Houston is expected to feel the brunt of the heavy weather right in the middle of the week. DePodwin warned that the storm “can further amplify the flood risk starting Tuesday night along the Texas coast, extending into the Houston area on Wednesday, which would coincide with the World Cup match that afternoon.” He added that “although the match is inside, flooding could cause road closures and cause dangerous travel conditions for those heading to the event.”
Runoff from the heavy rains will cause quick spikes in local drainage ditches and small streams, followed by slower, sustained rises in major river basins. In Texas, river flooding risks loom over the Neches, Guadalupe, Brazos, San Antonio, Trinity, Colorado, and Nueces rivers. As the system moves east, the Sabine, Calcasieu, Pearl, Tombigbee, and Alabama rivers are also predicted to swell, with minor to major flooding lasting into early next week.
Along with the water, coastal communities must contend with secondary hazards. Wind gusts between 40 and 60 mph are possible along the upper Texas and western Louisiana coasts from Tuesday night into Wednesday.
A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is expected near and just to the east of where the storm’s center moves inland, accompanied by rough surf. The outer bands of the storm also bring a risk of localized severe thunderstorms, which could spawn a few isolated tornadoes or waterspouts from the upper Texas coast across to the Florida Panhandle.
READ: Sky-High Prep: Clearwater Library Takes Hurricane Readiness To The Roof This Week
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