New Poll Suggests Uphill Battle for Kamala Harris in Hypothetical 2026 California Gubernatorial Race
A new poll released today by the University of California, Irvine, indicates that a majority of California voters would prefer a candidate other than former Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial contest.
The survey findings highlight potential challenges for Harris as she reportedly weighs entering the race later this summer.
According to the poll, Harris garners 41% support against a generic Republican’s 29% in a potential gubernatorial matchup.
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While this positions her as a frontrunner with the highest name recognition, her support is soft, and she has not yet broken 50%. Approximately 40% of the electorate remains undecided.
A closer look at the poll’s crosstabs reveals a more nuanced picture, particularly among independent voters, a crucial bloc in California’s top-two primary system. A significant 52% of independents are “not sure” who they would support, with only 13% opting for Harris. This suggests a notable level of apathy toward the former vice president within a state where Democrats hold a nearly two-to-one registration advantage.
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Party splits further underscore this sentiment. Only 3% of self-identified Republicans indicated they would back Harris, and 38% remain undecided within their own party. Among Democrats, Harris receives 49% support, with another 25% undecided, indicating that personal loyalty to Harris may not be as strong as the Democratic Party’s supermajority status in California might suggest.
This contrasts with Governor Gavin Newsom’s 20% increase in favorability following his public engagement with President Donald Trump during the Los Angeles riots.
Other prospective candidates struggle with name recognition, registering in the single digits. Real estate mogul Rick Caruso polls at approximately 9% statewide, former Democratic California Representative Katie Porter at 6%, and former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra at less than 2% in several regions.
Harris’s own favorability rating stands at a +11%.
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The poll also reflects a broader sense of dissatisfaction among California voters, with a two-to-one margin indicating they believe the state is “on the wrong track.”
The top concerns cited by respondents were housing, cost of living, and crime, which significantly outweighed “Culture War” issues.
This contributes to Harris’s numbers, with 14% of respondents stating they would skip the race entirely if the choice were between Harris and a Republican. This abstention rate could pose a challenge for Democrats, who historically rely on strong voter turnout.
Democrats are reportedly looking to a new policy blueprint, “Project 2029,” as a potential path to rebound, according to the New York Times.
Harris is expected to announce her decision regarding a gubernatorial run by the end of this summer.
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