Walker leads Warnock by 3.2 points, with the support of 49.7% of respondents, in a Trafalgar poll released Monday. That poll, taken between Nov. 4 and Nov. 6, surveyed 1,103 respondents and had a 2.9% margin of error.
If no candidate in Georgia wins more than 50% of the vote, the top two candidates will enter a runoff election for the seat. The race between Walker and Warnock has been close, with Walker maintaining a steady lead in recent weeks, at an average of 0.5% per RealClearPolitics, a statistical tie.
The race between Walker and Warnock has been closely watched as Republicans seek to retake a seat they lost in 2020 when Warnock, a novice politician and pastor, defeated appointed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler in a special runoff election by 2 points.
Walker’s campaign had earlier faced a scandal after a woman alleged that he conceived a child with her in 2009 and paid her to abort the pregnancy, despite calling himself “100% pro-life” on the campaign trail.
The Senate race is quite unlike the state’s gubernatorial campaign between incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams. Per the same Trafalgar survey, Kemp, with 52.6% support, is expected to win outright, defeating Abrams for a second time with an increased margin of victory following his win against her in 2018.
Other Senate races across the country polled by Trafalgar show GOP challengers leading their Democratic incumbents. In Ohio, Republican J.D. Vance leads Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan by 11.4% while, in North Carolina, Republican Rep. Ted Budd is leading the Democratic candidate, former North Carolina Chief Justice Cheri Beasley, by 6.4%.
Trafalgar polls have an “A-” rating from FiveThirtyEight for reliability.