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Hormuz Shipping Surges And Oil Prices Tumble, But New Route Dispute Triggers Tanker U-Turns

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio rejected proposals on Thursday that would allow Iran or any other nation to charge commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. His comments at a Gulf Cooperation Council meeting in Bahrain coincided with an official statement from Oman confirming that a new joint maritime traffic system being built with Iran “will not involve imposing any transit fees.”

The dispute over potential transit costs has become a central point of friction following the interim U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed last week to ease the four-month-old war. “International waterways do not belong to any nation state,” Rubio said during the summit. “If in fact we accepted that you can charge money to use an international waterway because it happens to be near your territorial space, well then this will spread throughout the world like a contagion.”

He added that while the U.S. wants a peace agreement, it is not looking for a deal “at any price,” emphasizing that any final arrangement must be verifiable and strictly adhered to.

Oman’s Foreign Minister, Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, reinforced this position, stating that “future arrangements concerning the Strait of Hormuz will not involve imposing any transit fees.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio
Secretary of State Marco Rubio

The Omani Foreign Ministry noted that Oman, as a littoral state, bears a responsibility under international law and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea to restore safe, uninterrupted freedom of navigation. Previous joint announcements between Iran and Oman had mentioned potential “costs associated” with a new traffic regulatory system, a concept the Trump administration has strictly opposed.

On the water, commercial shipping has started to ramp up under last week’s agreement, but new friction emerged Thursday morning. Maritime intelligence firm Kpler reported that 70 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, marking a 105% day-on-day increase. Kpler noted that vessels have increasingly utilized a southern route that hugs the coast of Oman, avoiding the northern corridor closer to Iran.

However, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a warning Thursday insisting that the northern route designated by Tehran is the only authorized path. Following the warning, tracking data from MarineTraffic.com showed three oil tankers on the southern route turning back completely, while three other vessels altered course toward the north to skirt the Iranian coast.

Richard Mead, Editor-in-Chief of Lloyd’s List, described the situation as a “limbo period” for shipping firms, noting that “we don’t know what normal is going to look like yet” before final negotiations conclude in less than two months.

The gradual resumption of shipping has triggered a drop in global energy markets. Brent crude fell 3.8% to $73.87 a barrel on Thursday morning, trading at its lowest point since the conflict began in late February, when prices sat around $70. U.S. benchmark crude dropped 3.9% to $70.34 a barrel.

Offshore Oil Drilling (Unsplash)
Offshore Oil Drilling (Unsplash)

Despite the drop in crude, Chevron Chief Financial Officer Eimear Bonner told CNBC that American consumers will not see immediate relief at the gas pump. “There is a lag between oil prices and reduction in oil prices and when that shows up at the pump,” Bonner said, noting that price adjustments will take time.

The delay has drawn criticism from President Donald Trump, who accused major energy firms of “gouging” drivers. Trump announced Wednesday that he had ordered an investigation into Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, and BP, stating that “gasoline prices should be much lower at the pump.”

Meanwhile, domestic political battles over the war continued in Washington, where the Senate rejected a measure on Wednesday that aimed to restrict President Trump’s authority to conduct military operations against Iran. The vote came one day after the president criticized senators for supporting a similar war powers resolution.

The wider regional conflict also faced disruptions on Thursday. Lebanese state media reported that an Israeli drone strike targeted a vehicle on a road between Zawtar and Mayfadoun in southern Lebanon, killing three people and wounding one.

“Three people were killed and one person was wounded when an enemy drone targeted a … vehicle on the road between Zawtar and Mayfadoun,” the state-run National News Agency reported.

The strike marks the third deadly incident since Tuesday, raising the weekly death toll from localized attacks to seven. Israeli officials stated previous strikes targeted Hezbollah members posing an immediate threat to forces in the area, even as Lebanese and Israeli delegations met in Washington for a fifth round of direct talks to preserve the regional ceasefire.

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