Hurricane Oscar, a surprisingly powerful but compact storm, is defying forecasts and posing a threat to the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba. The storm, which was initially expected to remain a tropical storm, rapidly intensified into a hurricane, prompting a special advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Aircraft Reconnaissance Proves Crucial
Hurricane Hunters flying into the storm found Oscar to be much stronger than anticipated, highlighting the importance of on-site aircraft observations. Satellite estimates had underestimated the storm’s intensity, with even the highest estimates falling short of the actual wind speeds measured by the aircraft.
READ: Hurricane Season In Florida Delivers A Nearly $4 Billion Blow To Insurers…And Climbing
Current Status and Forecast Track
Oscar is currently moving westward at 9 knots and is expected to pass very near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas this evening and tonight. A hurricane warning is in effect for these areas.
The storm is then forecast to slow down and turn northward, potentially bringing hurricane conditions to eastern Cuba. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for portions of eastern Cuba. Long-range forecasts suggest Oscar will eventually be absorbed by a trough in the northwestern Atlantic.
READ: NHC: Tropical Storm Nadine Forms In Caribbean, Warnings Issued
Intensity Forecast
Predicting Oscar’s intensity is challenging due to its small size and the difficulty of current models to accurately depict its strength. While some further intensification is possible, increasing wind shear and dry air are expected to weaken the storm in the coming days.
Key Messages:
- Hurricane Conditions: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas tonight, and are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.
- Storm Surge: A dangerous storm surge is expected in the Turks and Caicos, with minor coastal flooding possible in Cuba.
- Heavy Rainfall: Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the Turks and Caicos, southeastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba.
Residents in the affected areas are urged to monitor the storm closely and heed any warnings or advisories issued by local officials.
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