Tropical Storm Melissa is now forecast to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane, posing an extreme risk to lives and property across the western Caribbean, AccuWeather hurricane experts warned today.
The slow-moving storm’s torrential rainfall is the primary threat, carrying the potential for a “historic flooding disaster.”
Catastrophic Flooding Risk from Slow-Moving Storm
AccuWeather experts have upgraded the storm’s impact rating to a 4 for the western Caribbean and a 1 for Puerto Rico on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes. A rating of 4 warns of widespread catastrophic flooding, prolonged power outages, and potential structural damage.
“The exceptionally warm waters of the Caribbean will provide extra energy for Melissa to strengthen. This storm is expected to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane once it enters an area with less disruptive wind shear south of Jamaica,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
The storm’s slow movement is significantly amplifying the danger of flooding. Experts caution that hours or even days of heavy rainfall could trigger widespread, life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.
- Highest Risk Areas: Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica face an extreme risk due to predicted torrential rainfall.
- Rainfall Totals: Forecasts call for 8–16 inches of rain across much of southern Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 30 inches.
- Potential Crisis: AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter warned that if Melissa stalls, the catastrophic flooding in populated areas “could lead to a humanitarian crisis.”
People in the Cayman Islands and parts of Puerto Rico are also urged to monitor forecasts closely for potential flooding impacts.
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US East Coast Impacts Possible Next Week
While the risk of direct rain and wind impacts on the U.S. Gulf Coast is low, Melissa’s track and the jet stream will determine if the storm could affect the U.S. East Coast later next week.
A dip in the jet stream and steering winds will dictate whether Melissa is pulled out to sea or curls closer to the mainland before turning away.
Regardless of the exact track, rough surf, coastal flooding, and beach erosion are expected along parts of the U.S. East Coast starting next week. Residents along the East Coast and in the Bahamas are advised to be alert for these potential impacts.
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