Republicans are bleeding support among independent voters ahead of November’s midterm elections, according to new polling.
An Emerson College Polling national survey released Thursday found that congressional Democrats have a 22-point advantage over Republicans (50% to 28%) with independent voters. With roughly 90% of likely Republican and Democratic voters planning to support their party’s respective congressional candidates in 2026, according to Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball, independents are likely to have outsized influence over November’s elections.
Just 33% of independent voters approve of Trump’s job performance, compared to 86% of Republicans, according to the survey. Twice as many independent voters (66%) say the country is headed in the wrong direction.
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The number of independent voters has grown significantly in recent decades with 45% of Americans identifying as independent in 2026, up from 31% in 2004, according to Gallup.
Democrats have a 6-point lead (48% to 42%) in the overall generic congressional ballot, according to the Emerson College survey. Roughly 22% of independent voters are undecided in a hypothetical 2026 matchup.
A majority (55%) of the poll’s respondents said that Trump’s policies are making the U.S. economy worse while only 38% said they were making it better.
Furthermore, the pollster found that two-thirds of independent voters say Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) presence in communities is more harmful than helpful. Overall, 57% of likely voters disapprove of ICE’s presence.
The survey’s results came after an ICE agent fatally shot 37-year-old Renee Good in Minneapolis on Jan. 7, which spurred large-scale protests and hostile rhetoric toward federal immigration authorities from Democratic officials, including Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey. The Trump administration has said the ICE agent fired in self-defense.
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Trump is expected to travel to Iowa next Tuesday to give a speech focused on energy and the economy. White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles told The New York Post that Trump is “going to campaign like it’s 2024,” ahead of the midterms.
Many Republicans believe that Democrats will impeach the president for a third time if they retake House control in November.
Kimball also said there is a clear gender divide in the generic ballot.
“[W]omen break for the Democratic candidate 53% to 38%, while 47% of men support the Republican and 42% the Democrat,” Kimball said in a statement accompanying the survey.
The national survey of 1000 likely voters was conducted between Jan. 17-19 and has a credibility interval of plus or minus three percentage points.
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A New York Times-Siena University survey rolled out Thursday found that Democrats have a five-point lead in the generic ballot and a 15-point advantage with independent voters.
The number of independent voters has grown significantly in recent decades with 45% of Americans identifying as independent in 2026, up from 31% in 2004, according to Gallup.
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