With roughly 100 days remaining before the 2026 midterm elections, NBC News national political analyst Steve Kornacki broke down the electoral landscape, highlighting President Donald Trump’s approval ratings, key Senate pathways, House battlegrounds, and shifts in public opinion regarding foreign policy.
According to a recent Fox News poll, Trump’s job approval rating stands at 41%. The average of recent polling places his approval slightly below his standing at the same mark during his first term in 2018, when it sat at 43%. The Fox News survey shows majority disapproval for the president across major issues, with his highest mark being 42% on immigration, followed by lower scores on inflation, the general economy, and Iran.
Historically, the party occupying the White House almost always loses congressional seats in midterm elections. Republican strategists are looking to mirror the 2022 midterms under President Joe Biden, where the party in power limited House losses to a slim margin while making a net gain of one seat in the Senate.
Republicans view public perception of the Democratic Party as a key asset heading into November. According to the Fox News poll, a majority of self-identified Democrats hold a favorable view of socialism. However, the same survey indicates that socialism remains deeply unpopular among independent voters.
In the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a majority. To reach that threshold, the party must first defend vulnerable seats in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Michigan, the latter of which features an upcoming primary with general election implications.
Beyond holding current seats, Democrats view two Republican-held seats as primary targets: Maine, held by Sen. Susan Collins, where Democrats have fielded a new candidate, and North Carolina, where the party nominated the state’s former governor.
Picking up both seats would still leave Democrats two short of a majority. Bridging that gap would require victories in states Trump won by double digits in 2024, such as Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, or Texas.
In the House of Representatives, Democrats need to flip only a few seats to secure control. Two key races serve as potential bellwethers for the broader national mood:
- New York’s 17th District: Incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is running in a district that Trump lost in 2024. A win for Lawler could signal broader Republican resilience.
- Texas’s 34th District: Incumbent Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez is running in a South Texas district that was redrawn by state Republicans following the 2024 election. Under the new boundaries, the district voted for Trump by 11 percentage points. A victory by Gonzalez would test whether Republican gains among Hispanic voters in 2024 carry over to other candidates.
An additional variable affecting the midterm environment is public opinion surrounding the war with Iran. A recent Politico poll shows that 65% of respondents believe the war should either end or continue only if costs to Americans do not rise, with 36% saying it should not continue and 29% saying it should continue only without added costs.
The Politico data indicates a shift within the president’s political base. Among self-identified MAGA Republicans, 56% now say the war should end or continue only without increased costs to Americans, up from 41% in polling conducted two months prior.
READ: U.S. Munitions Running Low Amid Conflict With Iran, Waltz Points To Biden Admin
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