The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah, which took effect on November 26, has held with no significant attacks reported on either side. Hezbollah has refrained from launching operations into northern Israel or against Israeli targets in Lebanon, although the group falsely claimed it defeated the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and vowed to ensure the IDF adheres to the truce.
The IDF has stated it will maintain its positions in Lebanon for several weeks to monitor Hezbollah’s compliance. The agreement requires the IDF to fully withdraw from Lebanon by January 25, 2025.
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Despite the ceasefire, minor incidents have occurred along the Israel-Lebanon border. The IDF fired artillery and small arms at unidentified individuals approaching IDF positions and detained four Hezbollah fighters, including a local commander, who entered a restricted border area.
Neither Israel nor Hezbollah have labeled these incidents as violations of the ceasefire. Analysts have noted that these actions may reflect challenges within Hezbollah’s command-and-control structure as the group transitions to ceasefire conditions.
Civilians Begin Returning to Southern Lebanon
The IDF and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) have urged Lebanese civilians not to return to villages where IDF forces are currently deployed. Despite these warnings, reports indicate a significant movement of displaced Lebanese civilians attempting to return to their homes in southern Lebanon.
The IDF stated it would notify civilians when it is safe to return, while the LAF advised residents to delay their return until after the IDF’s withdrawal.
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LAF Strengthens Deployment in Southern Lebanon
The LAF has begun reinforcing its presence in southern Lebanon, including the deployment of armored units, in coordination with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
Lebanese Foreign Affairs Minister Abdallah Bou Habib announced that at least 5,000 LAF troops would be stationed south of the Litani River to ensure stability in the region.
Iranian-Backed Militias Signal Continued Attacks on Israel
While the ceasefire has eased tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border, Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have signaled their intent to continue attacks against Israel.
A source within the Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee claimed that groups including Ansar Allah al Awfiya, Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, Kataib Hezbollah, and Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada will persist with drone and missile strikes against Israeli targets until the IDF ends its operations in Gaza.
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Kataib Hezbollah also indicated that additional factions may join the conflict, framing their actions as support for Palestinians in Gaza.
Regional Stability Remains Fragile
The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah represents a critical step toward de-escalation in the region. However, the continued threats from Iranian-backed militias and the challenges of managing displaced populations underscore the fragility of the truce.
Both Israel and Lebanon face significant hurdles in maintaining the agreement while addressing broader regional tensions.
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