Betting Markets Favor Trump’s Daughter-in-Law in Early Projections
Following Senator Thom Tillis’s announcement that he will not seek re-election in 2026, attention has quickly turned to his potential Republican successor. CNN’s senior data reporter Harry Enten revealed Monday on “Anderson Cooper 360” that President Donald Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, is positioned as a significant frontrunner should she decide to enter the North Carolina GOP Senate primary.
According to the Kalshi betting market, Lara Trump currently holds 48% support to become the Republican nominee, considerably outpacing other potential candidates.
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“Yeah, if we take a look at the betting markets at this particular point she’s the runaway favorite to be the GOP nominee for Senate from North Carolina, 48% chance of being that nominee,” Enten said. “That is way up from where we were just yesterday. Mark Robinson, who’s in second, is only at a 4% chance to be the nominee. If Lara Trump decides to get in the race that 48% will jump very quickly.”
Former North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, for instance, registers at only a 4% chance. Enten noted that if Lara Trump formally declares her candidacy, her support could surge to over 90% in the primary.
Senator Tillis’s decision not to run came after President Trump indicated he would back a primary challenger if Tillis voted against a specific legislative bill.
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While Lara Trump appears to have a clear path in a Republican primary, Enten cautioned that the general election would likely present a tougher challenge. He cited former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper as a strong potential Democratic opponent, noting Cooper’s past approval ratings of over 50% in the state.
Lara Trump, a North Carolina native, previously served as co-chair of the Republican National Committee during President Trump’s 2024 campaign, stepping down in December after the election. She also hosts a Saturday show on Fox News. She has previously considered Senate runs in both North Carolina and Florida.
Other Republicans rumored to be considering a run for the open seat include RNC Chairman Michael Whatley and U.S. Representatives Greg Murphy, Tim Moore, and Brad Knott.
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