With the Democratic mayoral primary just one day away, a new Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey reveals a tightening race, with Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani pulling ahead of former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the ranked-choice voting simulation for the first time. This marks a significant shift in a contest that has seen Mamdani surge in recent months.
The final poll shows Cuomo leading the initial ballot test with 35% support, narrowly followed by Mamdani at 32%. Comptroller Brad Lander stands at 13%, with City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams at 8%, and Scott Stringer at 3%.
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A slim 4% of voters remain undecided. Mamdani’s rise has been notable, gaining ten points since last month’s poll, from 22% to 32%, while Cuomo’s support saw a modest one-point increase.
However, the dynamics change dramatically under New York City’s ranked-choice voting system. After eight rounds of simulation, Mamdani emerges victorious with 52% to Cuomo’s 48%. This demonstrates Mamdani’s ability to attract second and subsequent preference votes from other candidates’ supporters.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, highlighted Mamdani’s impressive trajectory: “Over five months, Mamdani’s support has surged from 1% to 32%, while Cuomo finishes near where he began. In the ranked-choice simulation, Mamdani gains 18 points compared to Cuomo’s 12, putting him ahead in the final round for the first time in an Emerson poll.”
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A closer look at early voting patterns further underscores Mamdani’s momentum. Among those who have already cast their ballots, Mamdani holds a significant 10-point lead over Cuomo, 41% to 31%. Conversely, Cuomo maintains an edge among voters who plan to vote on election day or have not yet voted, leading Mamdani 36% to 31%.
The survey also revealed distinct demographic preferences in the final ranked-choice round:
- Age: Voters under 50 strongly favor Mamdani by a 2:1 margin. In contrast, Cuomo leads among those aged 50–59 (63% to 37%) and voters over 60 (56% to 44%).
- Race/Ethnicity: Hispanic voters support Cuomo by a margin of 60% to 40%, and Black voters favor Cuomo 62% to 38%. Mamdani shows strong leads among white voters (61% to 39%) and Asian voters (79% to 21%).
- Education: Cuomo leads Mamdani among voters without a four-year college degree (61% to 39%), while Mamdani leads Cuomo among college-educated voters (62% to 38%).
- Gender: Men lean towards Mamdani 56% to 44%, while women show a slight preference for Cuomo at 52% to 48%.
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The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey was conducted from June 18-20, 2025, among 833 likely Democratic primary voters and early voters, with a margin of error of +/-3.3%.
The ranked-choice voting simulations had sample sizes of 800 for the first round (MOE +/-3.4%) and 729 for the final round (MOE +/-3.6%), excluding undecided voters. The data was weighted by various demographic factors including gender, education, race/ethnicity, age, region, and 2021 vote recall.
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