Democrat Zohran Mamdani holds a double-digit lead in the race for New York City Mayor, though his advantage has slightly narrowed following Mayor Eric Adams’ withdrawal, according to a Quinnipiac University New York City poll of likely voters released today.
Mamdani leads with 46 percent support, followed by independent candidate Andrew Cuomo at 33 percent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa at 15 percent. Adams’ departure appears to have significantly benefited Cuomo, who saw his support jump 10 percentage points from 23 percent in a September 10 four-way poll. Mamdani’s support shifted only slightly from 45 percent in the previous poll, while Sliwa’s held steady at 15 percent.
“The numbers changed but the contours of the race haven’t,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Mary Snow. “Andrew Cuomo picked up the bulk of Adams’ supporters cutting into Zohran Mamdani’s lead, but Mamdani’s frontrunner status by double digits stays intact.”
Key Demographic and Issue Breakdown
Mamdani’s strongest backing is among Democrats (60 percent), Asian American voters (67 percent), and younger voters (ages 18 to 34 at 62 percent, and 35 to 49 at 60 percent). Cuomo’s base of support is notably among Jewish voters (60 percent), and Sliwa’s is overwhelmingly among Republicans (54 percent).
On major issues, Mamdani is seen as the best candidate for lowering housing costs (48 percent vs. Cuomo’s 25 percent and Sliwa’s 13 percent) and managing the city’s public schools (41 percent vs. Cuomo’s 36 percent). Cuomo is viewed as the best candidate for growing the city’s economy (41 percent vs. Mamdani’s 35 percent). On the issue of keeping the city safe, Mamdani leads slightly with 35 percent to Cuomo’s 32 percent and Sliwa’s 23 percent.
Ethics, Experience, and Enthusiasm
When it comes to candidate favorability, Mamdani has a net positive rating (43 percent favorable to 35 percent unfavorable). Cuomo, however, is upside down with a net negative rating (37 percent favorable to 52 percent unfavorable), and Sliwa’s numbers are 27 percent favorable to 40 percent unfavorable.
A majority of likely voters view Mamdani as ethical (53 percent yes vs. 28 percent no), whereas 54 percent say Cuomo is not ethical (34 percent yes). Sliwa is seen as ethical by 41 percent of voters (26 percent no).
On experience, Cuomo dominates, with 73 percent of likely voters saying he has the right kind of experience to be mayor. Mamdani is viewed as lacking the experience by a plurality of voters (47 percent no vs. 39 percent yes), a sentiment even stronger against Sliwa (55 percent no vs. 24 percent yes).
Voter enthusiasm is highest for Mamdani’s supporters, with 90 percent saying they are either very or somewhat enthusiastic (56 percent very). Sliwa’s backers follow close behind at 85 percent total enthusiasm (52 percent very). Cuomo’s supporters show the least enthusiasm at 69 percent total (28 percent very).
Israel-Hamas Conflict
The poll also delved into the Israel-Hamas conflict, finding that 41 percent of likely voters believe Mamdani has views closest to their own, compared to 26 percent for Cuomo and 13 percent for Sliwa. When asked where their sympathies lie, 43 percent of likely voters say more with the Palestinians, while 22 percent say more with the Israelis.
Furthermore, likely voters were divided on Mamdani’s pledge to order the arrest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he visits New York: 43 percent oppose the pledge, while 38 percent support it.
The poll surveyed 1,015 New York City likely voters from October 3rd to 7th, with a margin of error of ±3.9 percentage points.
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