The race for the 2028 presidency is already heating up in the world of speculation. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has surged to become the joint odds-on favorite to win the White House, according to data from Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market.
On May 6, Rubio’s implied probability of winning the 2028 election climbed to 19%, briefly nudging him past Vice President J.D. Vance, who sat at 18%. California Governor Gavin Newsom followed closely behind at 16 percent.
By May 7, Rubio’s numbers were up to 20%, Vance remained steady at 18%, and Newsom came in at 17%.
This movement represents a massive swing in how investors view the political landscape. At the start of 2026, Rubio’s chances were pegged at a meager 6 percent. His 12-point climb over four months comes as Vice President Vance has seen his own market standing slide from a high of nearly 30 percent down to 18 percent.
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Prediction markets operate differently from traditional polls; traders buy and sell contracts on outcomes, with prices reflecting the perceived likelihood of an event.
While supporters say these markets aggregate real-time information, such as fundraising and “electability,” better than surveys, critics warn they can be volatile and easily skewed by small groups of wealthy traders.
Despite Rubio’s momentum in the betting markets, traditional polling suggests he still has a long hill to climb with actual voters.
An Echelon Insights poll from April showed Vance maintaining a dominant lead in a potential Republican primary with 42 percent support, while Rubio trailed at 14 percent.
On the Democratic side, the field remains crowded. Governor Newsom’s market probability has dipped slightly to 16 percent, while polls show former Vice President Kamala Harris maintaining a strong position, leading some surveys with as much as 50 percent of the Democratic primary vote.
For now, the roughly 20% probability assigned to Rubio and Vance implies that traders believe there is still an 80% chance that someone entirely different will take the oath of office in 2029.
The political world now turns its eyes toward the 2026 midterms, the traditional starting gun for formal campaign announcements.
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