Although the next presidential election is years away, new data analysis suggests the race for the 2028 Republican nomination is already underway—and one candidate has established a lead so dominant that analysts say he is effectively running unopposed.
CNN Senior Data Analyst Harry Enten broke down the numbers on Monday, painting a picture of the current GOP landscape. According to Enten, Vice President JD Vance isn’t just leading the pack; he is lapping it.
“These guys are running already, even if they haven’t formally declared,” Enten said during a segment on CNN News Central. “And JD Vance is running well ahead of the field.”
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Enten pointed to prediction markets as a primary indicator of Vance’s “heavy favorite” status. The data currently gives Vance a 48% chance of securing the nomination. The next closest contender, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, sits at just 12%, with no other potential candidate breaking the 5% threshold.
To illustrate the disparity, Enten used a racing metaphor.
“JD Vance is like Mario Andretti, and Marco Rubio and the rest of the field are going around in go-karts at this point,” Enten said. “JD Vance is the clear heavy favorite at this time.”
The data analyst emphasized that prediction markets are often reacting to hard polling numbers, specifically from early battleground states. In New Hampshire—traditionally the first primary in the nation—Vance is polling at 51%. His closest theoretical competitors, Nikki Haley and Tulsi Gabbard, are trailing significantly at 9% and 8%, respectively.
“That’s 42 points ahead of the pack,” Enten noted. “There’s a reason why he’s such a heavy favorite in the prediction market so far, because if you win the GOP primary in New Hampshire, chances are you’re going to be the Republican nominee for president.”
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Beyond the primary, early general election hypotheticals also show Vance in a competitive position. An Emerson College survey found him narrowly leading Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom, 46% to 45%, with a crucial 10% of the electorate still undecided.
This statistical dominance is being matched by organizational muscle on the ground. Conservative organizations like Turning Point USA are reportedly already mobilizing for Vance, with plans to build campaign infrastructure in the key caucus state of Iowa following his address at their annual conference.
With Vance positioned as the presumptive heir to the nomination, some strategists argue the burden is now on him to shape the party’s future identity.
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