The United States is heading into a wildfire season that could be defined by “quality over quantity,” but in the most dangerous way possible.
AccuWeather’s 2026 wildfire forecast, released today, suggests that while the total number of individual fires might actually drop compared to last year, the blazes that do start are expected to be significantly larger and harder to put out.
Experts are currently eyeing a total burn area of 5.5 to 8 million acres across the country. While that sits right around the historical average of 7 million acres, it marks a notable jump from the 5.1 million acres that burned in 2025. The forecast points to a volatile mix of low snowpack, early-season heat waves, and spreading drought as the primary fuel for this year’s risk.
“Expanding drought, combined with heat, wind, and dry vegetation, is a dangerous combination,” said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s Lead Long-Range Expert. He noted that the upcoming months could mirror the 2020 season, where fires moved with such speed that they overwhelmed containment efforts. “We expect hundreds of thousands, if not millions, more acres to burn this year,” Pastelok added.
The interior Northwest and the Rockies are currently sitting in the crosshairs for the highest risk this summer and fall. These areas are particularly vulnerable because a lack of winter moisture has left forests and grasslands “bone dry” earlier than usual.
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In California, the outlook is slightly more tempered, with an estimated 500,000 to 750,000 acres expected to burn—well below the state’s staggering 1-million-acre historical average.
However, the threat isn’t just limited to the flames. Meteorologists are warning of massive smoke plumes that could travel thousands of miles. AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham noted that high-altitude winds could easily carry smoke from Western blazes over the Midwest and into the Northeast, leading to the same hazy, hazardous air quality that choked major cities in 2023.
Climate experts also pointed to broader trends. Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson highlighted that while a developing El Niño might shift some rain patterns, the overall trend of rising temperatures and declining humidity continues to lengthen the fire season. He noted that even in the absence of human-caused ignitions, the changing climate is introducing more lightning risks to these parched landscapes.
Across the border, Canada is also looking at a rough year. AccuWeather predicts 11 to 15 million acres will burn there—far above their historical average of 5.7 million, further increasing the likelihood of cross-continental smoke impacts.
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