Tropical Storm Melissa is strengthening in the Caribbean, posing a severe and “life-threatening” threat to portions of Southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through the weekend, with forecasters warning of potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides.
According to a 2 p.m. ET advisory issued today by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Melissa was situated approximately 250 miles southwest of Port-Au-Prince, Haiti, and 230 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The storm is currently packing maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.
Rapid Intensification Expected
Melissa is on a trajectory to become a hurricane by Saturday and is forecasted to reach major hurricane status by Sunday, October 26.
Experts are not ruling out an even more dramatic escalation, with an AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva, suggesting that “Rapid intensification into a Category 5 hurricane is not out of the question this weekend.” DaSilva attributed this alarming forecast to the “exceptionally warm waters” in the storm’s direct path, which he said will “act like jet fuel.”
Due to the escalating threat, a Hurricane Watch is in effect for Jamaica and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, stretching from the Dominican Republic border to Port-Au-Prince. Both regions are also under a Tropical Storm Warning.
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Prolonged, Catastrophic Impacts
The slow movement of Tropical Storm Melissa is compounding the danger. NHC forecaster Philippe Papin warned that “the risk of a prolonged multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica.”
Heavy rainfall is the most immediate and severe concern.
- Southern Haiti is expected to face “catastrophic” flash flooding and landslides into early next week, with Papin anticipating “extensive damage to roads and buildings.”
- Eastern Jamaica and the southern Dominican Republic are also forecast to endure “life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides.”
Total rainfall through Sunday night is projected to be 8 to 14 inches across the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica. Even areas to the north and west, including western Jamaica, the northern Dominican Republic, and northern Haiti, are expected to receive 3 to 5 inches, which could increase flooding risks into the coming week.
Erratic and Slow Track
Melissa is currently drifting east-southeast at a mere 2 mph. The storm’s path is expected to be erratic and slow, with a turn toward the northeast and north later on Friday, followed by a drift westward from Saturday through Monday. Forecasters predict the storm will move near or just south of Jamaica by early next week.
Residents in the affected areas are urged to prepare for powerful winds that could cause widespread power and communication outages, knock over trees, and damage buildings, as hurricane conditions become possible in Haiti on Saturday and in Jamaica late Saturday or early Sunday.
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