Melissa is forecast to bring widespread catastrophic impacts to the western Caribbean, with AccuWeather experts warning of a “slow-motion disaster” that could lead to a humanitarian crisis. The storm is predicted to make back-to-back landfalls as a major hurricane, first in Jamaica and then in Cuba, before moving toward the Bahamas.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva warned, “Millions of people are at risk of catastrophic impacts. We are increasingly concerned about the threat of a humanitarian disaster unfolding.”
Catastrophic Threat for Western Caribbean
Due to the extreme threat to life and property, Melissa has been assigned a top-level 5 for the western Caribbean on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes, which accounts for the total threat including wind, storm surge, and flooding rain.
Melissa is forecast to rapidly intensify to a major hurricane as it slowly churns over warm Caribbean waters. This slow movement is a key concern, as it will prolong devastating impacts. Parts of Jamaica could be hammered with hurricane conditions, including torrential rainfall and destructive winds, for up to 72 hours or longer.
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AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter stressed the potential for a humanitarian crisis, noting, “Days of torrential rainfall and destructive wind gusts could cause a humanitarian crisis in the Caribbean. Thousands of people may be left without access to safe drinking water, food, shelter, and medical care.”
Life-Threatening Rainfall and Winds
Forecasts call for catastrophic, life-threatening conditions:
- Rainfall: Widespread rainfall of 12-18 inches is likely across southern Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba, with parts of southwestern Haiti and Jamaica expected to receive 18-24 inches, which would cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides.
- Wind: Jamaica is forecast for wind gusts of 80–120 mph on Sunday and Monday.
- Storm Surge: Storm surge of 6-10 feet is possible in parts of Jamaica.
AccuWeather experts have upgraded the risk for all of Jamaica and parts of western Haiti to a catastrophic level. DaSilva noted that “rapid intensification to a Category 5 hurricane is not out of the question.”
U.S. East Coast on Alert for Coastal Hazards
While the immediate threat is to the Caribbean, the U.S. East Coast is on alert for hazardous beach conditions next week. Rough surf, dangerous rip currents, and beach erosion are expected along parts of the coast due to Melissa’s powerful reach.
Furthermore, a coastal storm, potentially a potent nor’easter, is expected to develop along the Atlantic coast from Tuesday through Thursday. The combination of this coastal system and the offshore influence of Hurricane Melissa will stir up gusty winds and rough surf, contributing to potential coastal flooding and further beach erosion.
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